Friday Data - August 28, 2020
Friday Data – August 28, 2020. Today we share the Covid-19 Data Tracker from First Trust Portfolios. We also take a look at some high frequency data that shows some continued improvements in our economy. And check out a link to an article from Franklin Templeton about misinformation and bias surrounding the Covid-19 Pandemic.
Covid Data Tracker
Here are some key observations.
- Deaths and new cases continue to trend lower.
- The “Case Fatality Rate” has continued to show signs of drastic improvement since April. (This only accounts for fatalities of known positive cases)
- Nearly 92% of all Covid-19 deaths have occured in people who are 55 or older.
- 45 out of 50 states (90%) have less than 10% of their hospital beds occupied by Covid-19 patients. Over half have fewer than 5% of their inpatient beds occupied by Covid-19 patients.
Misperception, misinformation and bias
A recent study by Franklin Templeton Investments and Gallup provided some interesting observations. Americans have a significant misperception of the risks posed by the Coronavirus.
Below is a chart from the article. Respondents to the study believed the virus poses more danger to certain age groups (blue bars) than it actually does (green bars). Respondents to the survey believed people 45 and younger accounted for 42% of the Covid-19 deaths. The actual number is 7.5%. They also believed people 65 or older accounted for 39% of deaths. The virus has hit this age group the hardest. People 65 and older account for 80% of the total deaths.
It is worth a few minutes of your time. (Click on the blue text in the paragraph above for the full article).
Continuing signs of economic improvement
The high frequency data shows the American Economy continues to improve.
- Jobless claims continue to fall
- Retail sales continue to recover.
- Rail car traffic and box office receipts show signs of improvement.
- Hotel and restaurant data looks more encouraging. But it has a long way to go.
This graph from Scott Grannis shows the impact of jobless claims. It looks very much like a “V” shaped recovery.
Manufacturing and consumer spending also show signs of improvement. (From Charles Schwab’s Liz Ann Sonders)
Continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment, as @KansasCityFed Manufacturing rose to 14 in August vs. 5 est. & 3 in prior month … new orders, exports & production expanding; notably, employment has jumped into expansionary territory pic.twitter.com/MkvWIcmbHq— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) August 28, 2020
Consumer spending remains below pre-pandemic levels but hasn’t taken much of a hit, regardless of states’ unemployment claims levels, as per @jpmorgan Chases’ credit card data @SoberLook @USDOL pic.twitter.com/8N4N8Pqvvx— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) August 27, 2020
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About the Author
Neal Watson is a Certified Financial Planner™ Professional and a Financial Advisor with Fleming Watson Financial Advisors. He specializes in helping hard working, middle class families plan for retirement.