Can Stocks Predict The Election Outcome?

Can Stocks Predict The Election Outcome?

Can stocks predict the election outcome? What about back-to-back bear markets? How big was the stock market drop in dollar terms?  We’ll cover these tidbits and more.

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The stock market was down 34% earlier this year and it made a complete recovery. The recovery was led by a small handful of companies.

As of August 28, almost one-third of the stocks in the S&P 500 are still down at least 20% for the year.

That's a lot of money...

On February 19, the total value of the US stock market was $36.1 trillion. On March 23, at the bear market low, the US stock market was worth $23.4 trillion. $12.7 trillion evaporated into thin air over that timeframe. Most of that has come back, and we’re all glad for it.

can stocks predict election
Can stocks predict the election

Back-to-back bears?

We’re still dealing with this COVID-19 pandemic, and the economy isn’t back to full strength yet. There are some concerns that there will be some lingering effects. One of those concerns is a double-dip recession. The other is another significant drop in the stock market.

Over the last 75 years, the shortest time between the end of one bear market and the beginning of the next is two years and two months. The S&P 500 fell 22% during a bear market which ended on October 7, 1966. The next bear market, an 18 month long tumble of 36%, began on November 29, 1968.

It can happen quickly. Two years is the record. We may or may not see that record tested.

Can the Stock Market Predict The Election?

The S&P 500 was up 7.19% in August. It was the best August ever.

We found this interesting tidbit on the website MarketWatch. This is from Julian Emanuel of institutional investment management firm BTIG. “At first glance, August strength plays well into Donald Trump’s reelection. In the three months prior to November elections, positive S&P 500 returns have accompanied incumbent party presidential victories 85.7% of the time.”

“Going back to 1928, when stocks rose 5% or more in August, and the June to August return was in the top quartile, the market often struggled in September and October. When the S&P 500 was down from the end of August through the election, the incumbent party lost the White House on all six occasions.”

Could the stock market performance over the next couple of months predict the outcome of the election? It will be interesting to see if that comes true or not.

stocks predict election

 

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Neal Watson is a Certified Financial Planner™ Professional and a Financial Advisor with Fleming Watson Financial Advisors.    He specializes in helping hard working, middle class families plan for retirement.

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No more bear – Data update August 21, 2020

No More Bear! - Data update for August 21, 2020

We are no longer in a bear market, it ended this week.  We share some interesting data about that. We also share the updated Covid-19 tracker from First Trust Portfolios.  

No More Bear!

On Tuesday August 18th, the S&P 500 set a new high. This means no more bear!  We will have a lot about this on our next episode of Monday Morning Money.

No More Bear

Liz Ann Sonders from Charles Schwab (our soon to be custodian) posts some great data on Twitter.  Here are some interesting facts about the recovery… 

The “Awesome 8”

Eight companies have led the charge higher in the recovery.  And most of the rest of the companies haven’t done very well.

More evidence of a few big companies leading the charge.

Missing the Big “Up Days”

You always hear someone talking about missing the big up days.  It turns out many of them happen when the market is crashing.

Virus Data Update

Our friends at First Trust Portfolios have updated their virus data tracker.

Key Takeaways…

  • New positive tests and deaths continue to show a downward trend.
  • Progress continues on the development of a vaccine.
  • The US currently has some of the strictest social restrictions in the world right now. (green line).
  • This is nowhere near as deadly as the Spanish Flu in 1918.  And it isn’t as bad as the 1957-58 flu outbreak.
  • The number of states reporting increasing numbers continues to track lower.

“Fast Data” from First Trust

Fast data includes passengers being screened at TSA checkpoints and other data available weekly.  Below is some other data that shows an uptick in activity.

No More bear
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Neal Watson is a Certified Financial Planner™ Professional and a Financial Advisor with Fleming Watson Financial Advisors.    He specializes in helping hard working, middle class families plan for retirement.

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Things continue to improve…

Things continue to improve

The pandemic shut down our economy earlier this year. Now America is slowly reopening. Here are some charts and data showing that things continue to improve.

From Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Scwaab…

From economist, Scott Grannis….

Airline passengers

things are continuing to imrpove

Gasoline Sales

things are cointuing to improve &nbsp

Service Sector Activity

things continue to improve Scott Grannis writes an outstanding blog, he uses a very data driven approach.  Check it out here.

From Economist Brian Wesbury of First Trust Portfolios…

 

Retail sales and food services

 
things are starting to improve

 

 

Industrial Production and Manufacturing Output

things are starting to improve

Mr. Wesbury also believes the recession is over. Read more here.

From Thomas Lee of fundstrat.com

And although this tweet is a little older, I still thought this was very interesting.      

There are still risks...

There are still risks ahead.  The pandemic isn’t over, and the risk of a second wave of infections remains a threat.  But every now and then, it is important to look past the bad news that dominates the media.  While we aren’t back to normal, things continue to improve.

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Financial Planning

About the Author

Neal Watson is a Certified Financial Planner™ Professional and a Financial Advisor with Fleming Watson Financial Advisors.    He specializes in helping hard working, middle class families plan for retirement.

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3 Questions To Help Evaluate Your Cash Flow

3 Questions to Help You Evaluate Your Cash Flow

The COVID-19 Pandemic forced a lot of major changes to our lives. IT has also created a unique opportunity to gauge how we spend money. Today, we’ll pose three questions to help you evaluate your cash flow.

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3 Questions to Help You Evaluate Your Cash Flow

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Questions To help Evaluate Your Cash Flow
3 Questions to Evaluate Your Cash Flow

A week ago, we talked about the importance of building your financial safety net. One of the first steps was to take a hard look at your spending. Today, we have three questions to help you evaluate your cash flow.

Question 1

Evaluate Your Cash flow

The things you really enjoyed—the activities that added value to your life, you’ll find a way to do them again. Eliminating the ones you don’t miss and the costs associated with them, can help you get your budget back on track.

Question 2

Questions to Help Evaluate Cash Flow

Was it that fancy cup of coffee, or breakfast sandwich on the way to work? Could it be something bigger? If you haven’t missed it when you were forced to stop buying it, you don’t have to start just because you can. You may find that many of those little things can add up to a lot of money each month.

Question 3

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When things get tight, we start to look at the details. It’s easy to identify the line-items on your bank statement that cause you stress. It could be the amount you spend eating out. Or, that pesky gym membership you don’t need or use. And then there are all those subscriptions. It could be something even bigger like a car payment.

Weigh the stress of those expenses now that times are tight to see the true value they provide to your life. If those two things are “out of balance,” take some time to clean them up.

Remember, there are no wrong answers to those three questions.

This pandemic forced us to alter our spending habits. In the process, it revealed what was essential, important, and truly valuable to our lives. And that can help us make better choices about money going forward. It can help us build our financial safety net and save for our future.

evaluate your cash flow questions
evaluate your cash flow questions
Questions to Evaluate Your Cash Flow

 

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Neal Watson is a Certified Financial Planner™ Professional and a Financial Advisor with Fleming Watson Financial Advisors.    He specializes in helping hard working, middle class families plan for retirement.

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4 Ways The Pandemic Could Impact Social Security

4 Ways the Pandemic Could Impact Social Security

Social Security is the cornerstone of retirement income for many Americans.  Have you wondered if the Coronavirus outbreak will impact your benefits? Here are four ways the pandemic could impact Social Security.

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4 Ways the Pandemic Could Impact Social Security

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The Covid-19 Pandemic and the Economy

The Covid-19 virus has turned the world and the economy on its head. The financial impacts are being felt far and wide. We have record unemployment claims, with nearly 22 million people out of work–so far. And Pew Research estimates 27% of American workers have seen their pay reduced.  Government response has also been extreme.  All of that will impact the future.

Most of the media focus has been on how this outbreak has impacted current workers. But it can also affect retirees. Here are four ways the pandemic could impact your Social Security benefits.

pandemic social security impact

Social Security does provide an inflation-adjusted income stream. But over the past several years those average increases have not been all that great. In some years, it hasn’t been enough to cover the increase in Medicare premiums. 

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the current 10-year inflation expectation is less than 1.2% per year. If those projections hold, it means small benefit increases. In some years, it could mean your net check decreases due to rising Medicare costs.

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Pandemic Impacts Social Security

Depending on how long the economic shutdown lasts, many older workers could be forced to retire earlier than they expected. For many, this forces them to start Social Security earlier than their normal retirement age. And those discounts could be close to 30%.  

Social Security Impact pandemic

Social Security uses Average Indexed Wages to compute your Social Security benefits. The economic downturn means total wages earned in 2020 will be less. They could be a lot less.

This could impact how they compute your Social Security benefits. The end-result could be a smaller monthly payment. This will most likely impact those who are close to age 60.

Are You Ready to Retire?

If you are 50 or older, and thinking about your retirement, click here for a free retirement assessment.

Pandemic Impacts Social Security

Right now, fewer payroll taxes are being collected. This places an extra strain on an already stressed system.

Prior to the pandemic, Social Security looked to be solvent until 2034. This means they had enough to pay the promised benefits. But the reduced tax collections could mean the problems could happen a year sooner.

Unless there are major changes, when Social Security reaches this point, benefits will have to be reduced.

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Far Reaching Impact

The coronavirus pandemic has affected more than our health. It has had a significant impact on many areas of our economy. And this includes your Social Security benefits.

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Financial Planning

About the Author

Neal Watson is a Certified Financial Planner™ Professional and a Financial Advisor with Fleming Watson Financial Advisors.    He specializes in helping hard working, middle class families plan for retirement.

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