With two weeks remaining in 2019, we review a couple of blog posts from 2018. Both were looking ahead to what might happen this year. Were the predictions right? Let’s take a look.
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After a Down Year for Stocks, What Happens Next?
Since 1950, there have only been 15 years when the S&P 500 finished underwater including 2018. With the concerns at the time, most people were wondering if we would see another negative year in 2019.
We went digging into the numbers to see how often the stock market posted back-to-back negative years, to see what we should expect.
The data showed in the 14 previous events, the stock market finished higher the next year 11 times. And not just positive a little bit. The average gain following a down year was over 17%
Was the Prediction Right?
It looks like we will be able to say the next year was positive 12 out of 15—barring a major meltdown in the next couple of weeks. It also looks like the average gain the year after the down year will go up as well.
The Wall Street Crystal Ball
We also looked at how well the big investment firms could predict the future. In fact we even bought our own crystal ball to see if we could get in on the act.
We showed 12 predictions from the some of the biggest names on Wall Street. All 12 predicted gains for the stock market. Here are some of the highlights.
- The most pessimistic prediction for stocks was a 3% gain.
- 5 of the 12 predicted single digit returns for the S&P 500, while 7 forecasted double digit gains.
- 3 of these firms predicted returns of 20% or more.
- The average guess for all 12 was a positive return of 14%.
- And the most optimistic prediction was for a 26% gain.
Were the Predictions Right?
With just two weeks to go, The S&P 500 is up well over 26% for the year. At least crystal balls at a handful of these firms were close. That’s a pretty big improvement over 2018’s predictions.
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About the Author
Neal Watson is a Certified Financial Planner™ Professional and a Financial Advisor with Fleming Watson Financial Advisors He typically works with people who are planning for retirement. Fleming Watson is a Registered Investment Advisory firm located in Marietta Ohio. Our firm primarily serves Marietta, Parkersburg, Williamstown, St. Marys, Belpre, Vienna and the surrounding communities in Washington and Noble Counties in Ohio and Wood and Pleasants county in West Virginia.