How Can You Invest in Electric Vehicles?

How Can You Invest in Electric Vehicles?

How can you invest in electric vehicles? Today we discuss:

  • the two ways you can do this
  • the difference between the two
  • and a valuable lesson we can learn from one of the best-performing stocks over the last quarter-century, Amazon.

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How Can You Invest in Electric Vehicles?

This is a hot topic right now. More people are wanting to know how they can take part in this new and emerging technology.

Individual Stocks

The first way to invest in electric vehicles is to buy individual stocks. The most popular is Tesla. They have been making electric vehicles for a few years. The other major auto manufacturers are also getting involved in this. Both GM and Ford are committing billions of dollars to this technology. GM is also challenging Tesla on the battery front.

There are other companies in this industry. Nikola is developing battery-powered semi-trucks. And there are companies working on charging and battery components. Examples of those include Blink Charging and Plug Power.

There are also companies that manufacture the technology for the cars. Intel and Nvidia will also have a role in this emerging industry.

You can also look for investments in companies who focus on lithium. Batteries are a major component.

Mutual Funds or Exchange Traded Funds

The other way to invest in this industry is to use an exchange-traded fund or a mutual fund. The financial industry has been very innovative over the years. When industries like this emerge, they create a fund to focus on these companies. You can buy the fund instead of trying to pick individual stocks.

The Difference Between Using Stocks and Funds

The big difference between the two is the potential risk and reward.  Both ways of investing offer the opportunity to benefit from the growth of the industry. Both also experience a lot of volatility.

An individual company offers the potential for more reward, if you choose a good one. But when you pick the wrong one, you could lose more.

Using a fund reduces the potential gains. When you buy funds, you make smaller bets on a larger list of companies. Not all of them will be the big winner. You own shares of Tesla, GM, and Ford. You also may own shares of Nvidia and Intel.

The Lesson From Amazon

Amazon went public in May of 1997 in the middle of the dot-com boom. Since its offering, it has been one of the best-performing stocks over the last quarter-century. But early on, there was a lot of volatility.

In its first five years of existence, Amazon suffered significant price drops.

  • It fell more than 20% twice.
  • There were two 40% price drops.
  • One price drop exceeded 60%
  • And one time the price declined 90%!

Withstanding that much volatility takes a strong stomach and nerves of steel. Emerging technologies are not for the faint of heart.

Talk to a Certified Financial Planner™ Professional

If you would like to consider an investment in electric vehicles, talk to a financial planner. They can help you understand how it fits within your plans and your goals.

 


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About the Author

Neal Watson is a Certified Financial Planner™ Professional and a Financial Advisor with Fleming Watson Financial Advisors.    He specializes in helping hard working, middle class families plan for retirement.

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A Stock Market Crash is Always Coming

A Stock Market Crash is Always Coming

A stock market crash is always coming.  

A good friend of mine sent me an article last week written by the folks at motleyfool.com. Four Reasons the Market will Crash in the Next Three Months.

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The reasons they gave were:

  • Increased restrictions due to the virus
  • The vaccine euphoria would evaporate. (Remember in the last quarter of 2020, the stock market got a big boost on the vaccine news.)
  • Democrats would win the two Senate races in the Georgia runoffs. (This already happened.)
  • And history repeating itself.

Here’s the truth about the stock market.  The stock market goes up, it goes down, and then it goes back up, again. There is always a crash of some magnitude coming.

Crashes are Normal

Your definition of a crash and my definition of a crash are probably two different things. To me, a crash is a significant drop. What we saw last spring, that was a crash. Others include:

  • The “dot com” bust
  • the Great Recession
  • 1987
  • And the end of 2018, when the market dropped almost 20% over the course of three months.

You can look at the data going back into the 1920s and see that market crashes happen all the time.

Annual Corrections

The average calendar year correction since 1980 is -14%. The smallest was -3%. And the small corrections are rarer than the bigger ones.

The largest was -47%. That happened back in 2008. Last year, the correction was -35%. It was the second-worst drop in the last 41 years.

These events happen regularly. What is more important is what happens after the crashes. The stock market’s total return in 2020. was +18.4% last year. It erased the losses and produced a gain of almost 20%!

A stock market crash is always coming

Over the last 41 years,

  • There has been a drop of -10% or more at least 23 times
  • the market has gone down by more than -14% 16 times
  • and the compounded average annual return over the 41-year timeframe is +11.9% per year.

Stop and think about what has happened over the last four decades.

Despite all that happened, the stock market rewarded investors with an 11.9% average annual return.

Don’t worry about the headlines. You can write these stories every month from here to eternity. The crashes are going to happen. History shows us time and time again, those who weather the storms are rewarded.

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About the Author

Neal Watson is a Certified Financial Planner™ Professional and a Financial Advisor with Fleming Watson Financial Advisors.    He specializes in helping hard working, middle class families plan for retirement.

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What is Tax-Loss Harvesting?

What Is Tax-Loss Harvesting?

A listener asks a question about year end tax planning.  Can tax-loss harvesting help your tax situation?  Today we look at this strategy and how it works.

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What is tax-Loss harvesting

Today we answer a question from Joanne. She writes, “Last week I heard about something called tax-loss harvesting. What is it, and how can we benefit from it?” This is a strategy you can use to reduce your tax liability.

Understanding Capital Losses

From time to time, investments will decrease in value. And they may decrease to a level that is below your cost basis. Your cost basis is what you paid for the investment, plus any dividends reinvested into that position.

If the market value drops below your cost basis, you have an unrealized capital loss. You realize that loss when you sell it, and that can help reduce your income tax liability.

How Capital Losses Affect Your Taxes

First, losses offset any capital gains. Capital gains happen in two ways. They happen when you sell something for a profit. If you own a mutual fund, the fund may pay a capital gain distribution. The fund creates gains when the fund buys and sells securities.

An investor sells shares of Amazon for a $10,000 profit. They also sell shares of Ford for an $8,000 loss. They would only pay capital gains taxes on $2,000.

Loss-Harvesting

If your losses exceed your gains, you can use those losses to reduce other income, up to certain limits. You can use $3,000 of capital losses to reduce your other income each year. Any excess gets carried forward to future years.

Our investor sold shares of Amazon for a $10,000 gain. They also sold shares of General Electric for a $15,000 loss. You would not incur any capital gains taxes this year. They can use $3,000 of the remaining loss against their other income. The investor would have to carry $2,000 forward to use against their taxes next year.

What is Tax-Loss harvesting

Planning Tip

This does not apply to any investments in an IRA, 401k, or other types of qualified plans. You are not paying capital gains taxes on anything you buy and sell in those accounts.

Wash Sales

If you are harvesting a capital loss, you can’t buy the same investment you sold for a loss within 30 days. Doing so creates a wash sale. The IRA will not allow the loss on your taxes. If the stock you sold has a sudden increase in price, you can miss out on the gains.

Keep Good Records

If you have a large capital loss, it could take a long time to carry it forward. You will need to keep very good records.

There is Still Time for 2020

You still have time to harvest capital losses for this year. Any sales made between now and December 31 count on this year’s taxes. But you should speak to your tax professional to see what kind of impact those will have on your situation.

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About the Author

Neal Watson is a Certified Financial Planner™ Professional and a Financial Advisor with Fleming Watson Financial Advisors.    He specializes in helping hard working, middle class families plan for retirement.

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Is Bitcoin a Good Investment?

Is Bitcoin a Good Investment?

Is Bitcoin a good investment? It is the new frontier in the investment world.  Its gains over the past six years will catch your eye.  Today we will answer a listener question about the digital currency and its characteristics.

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Is bitcoin a good investment

Our question is from Chris. He writes, “A guy at work keeps talking about Bitcoin. I don’t understand it. What is it and should I consider investing in it?”

Bitcoin, along with a few others, is a digital currency. It is not backed by a country or a central bank. An encrypted public ledger verifies the ownership of the coins. This ledger uses blockchain technology and it is very difficult to change. There are people who use computers to verify the transactions using digital cryptographic keys.

Bitcoin and Gold

In many ways, Bitcoin is similar to an investment in gold.

  • You can buy in various currencies, just like gold.
  • Its price fluctuates with changes in demand, just like gold.
  • And it is used as a store of value, just like gold.

But it is also different. Most businesses do not accept gold as a form of payment. You can use Bitcoin and other digital currencies to buy and sell goods and services. You can use it on PayPal. Some online retailers will also accept it for payment.

Growing Popularity

Bitcoin has become very popular to investors for a couple of reasons. The first is its meteoric gains over the last several years. It started trading in mid-September 2014. The price then was about $460. Last week, it closed at over $18,800. The average annual return of the Bitcoin has been about 82% per year.

The other appealing aspect of Bitcoin is that it is not a government-controlled currency.

Caution: Proceed with Care

There are many concerns when investing in Bitcoin.

Volatility

Bitcoin began trading in September 2014. Since then, we have seen

  • one price drop of more than 80%
  • another price drop of nearly 60%
  • three more drops of more than 30%
  • and three more drops of at least 20%.

This equates to eight bear markets in six years. It can be a very wild ride—more so than stocks and gold!

Taxes

There are tax consequences to sell your coins. Those sales get taxed as capital gains and losses. You need to be aware of your holding periods to know whether it’s short term or long term.

Are Purchases Considered Redemptions?

If you are using your Bitcoins to buy something, is that considered a redemption? This is a vague area. In some cases, using your digital currency as payment is considered a redemption. This could create a taxable event you did not expect.

Fees

There are some transaction fees to buy and sell Bitcoin. You want to be aware of those.

Non-traditional Businesses

You cannot buy cryptocurrency through most traditional financial institutions. Major brokerage firms and banks won’t hold or execute the trades.

The “Wild West” of Finance

Many governments fear criminals use Bitcoin to launder money. The United States asks if you have a cryptocurrency account on your tax return. They ask to help them track potential criminal activity.

Security of your account is also a concern. It’s a new frontier with very little regulation. There are many concerns about the security of your digital key and avoiding hackers.

Your digital key is very important. Recently, a CEO from a cryptocurrency exchange died with his passwords. He had over $150 million tied up in cryptocurrency. His family cannot access those accounts without the digital keys.

How do You Buy It? (My Own Experience)

The first thing you need to have is a digital wallet. There are many well-known providers. I used Coinbase. I opened an account in less than 10 minutes. I had a little difficulty linking it to one of the banks I deal with, but I was able to fix the issue.

Coinbase charges a minimum transaction fee of $2.99. The costs are then about 1.5% of the amount you buy or sell.

Overall, the process was very easy.

If you want to use a brokerage firm, try Betterment or Robinhood.

Is Bitcoin a Good Investment?

It has been terrific if (and that is a big “IF“) you can withstand the volatility. But nobody knows how it will do in the future. Right now, it is near its all-time high. You could be buying high, hoping it goes higher. You may want to wait for a correction—it tends to correct frequently. And there are tax consequences when you sell your coins.

You need to be careful and make sure you have your strong passwords written down somewhere. If something happens to you, your loved ones can access that account. 

Blockchain

Blockchain technology has a lot of potential uses in many different industries.

  • you could use it to verify your title to real estate
  • governments could use it for online voting security
  • Stock exchanges can use it to verify ownership of stock certificates. This could speed up trade settlements
  • companies like FedEx and UPS can use it to verify their deliveries
  • the Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards is already using blockchain to authenticate credentials

Bitcoin is a new frontier in the investing world. If you would like to learn more or get an objective opinion about how cryptocurrency could fit into your plan, check with a financial planner.

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About the Author

Neal Watson is a Certified Financial Planner™ Professional and a Financial Advisor with Fleming Watson Financial Advisors.    He specializes in helping hard working, middle class families plan for retirement.

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How Could Your Taxes Change in 2021?

How Could Your Taxes Change in 2021?

How could your income taxes change in 2021? We’re still waiting on election results. But we can look ahead to the potential changes to your taxes if Joe Biden wins the election.

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Here’s what we know about Mr. Biden’s tax plan.

Improving and Adding Certain Tax Credits

He wants to improve and add tax credits.  His plan calls for:

  • increasing the Child and Dependent Care tax credit. (this is for daycare costs)
  • expanding the earned income tax credit for people over 65.
  • renewable energy credits for electric vehicles and solar panels.
  • restoring the first-time homebuyers tax credit.
  • for 2021—and as long as economic conditions dictate—increasing the child tax credit.

Tax Credits for Retirement Savings

His plan also wants to equalize the tax benefits of retirement plan contributions. Right now, people get a deduction for some of those retirement plan contributions. He wants to change this to a tax credit.

What is the difference between a tax deduction and a tax credit? Which is better?

 
A Tax Deduction is something which reduces your income. If you earned $1,000, and have a $200 deduction, your adjusted income is $800. You compute your tax using the reduced amount. If your tax rate is 15%, your $200 deduction will lower your taxes by $30.
 
A Tax Credit is a direct reduction of your income tax liability. If your tax liability is $1,000, and you have a $200 credit, your tax bill is $800.
 
In most cases tax credits are better than tax deductions.

Tax Increases for High Earners and Corporations

Mr. Biden also wants to increase taxes for those people who make a lot of money. If you make over $400,000, you can expect a significant tax increase.

  • your social security taxes will go up.
  • The maximum tax rate that you pay on your income will also increase.
  • If you are a business owner, you will lose the qualified business deduction.
  • It will also tax capital gains and qualified dividends as ordinary income for those making over $1 million.
  • It will also limit the benefits of itemized deductions.

He also wants to increase the taxes on businesses. The corporate tax rate under Mr. Biden’s proposal goes from 21% to 28%.

Lastly, he wants to restore federal estate taxes back to 2009 levels.

The Most Concerning Tax Change

There is something in Mr. Biden’s tax plan that will impact a lot of people. It involves how your cost basis is treated at a person’s death.

What is cost basis? 

Your “cost basis” is what you pay for an asset. Whether you buy a house, a stock, a rental property or a bond, whatever you pay for that asset is your cost basis. If you add money to it, it increases your cost basis.

The cost basis is important when you sell that asset. You pay capital gains tax on the difference between the sale price and your cost basis. Let’s look at an example. Let’s say you buy a stock for $10,000. After several years, the value has grown to $50,000. If you sell that stock, you pay capital gains on the difference between the sale proceeds of $50,000 and your cost basis ($10,000). You would owe taxes on $40,000.

How Could Your Taxes Change in 2021

If you had reinvested the dividends from that stock, your cost basis increased. Let’s say you reinvested $5,000 of dividends, the cost basis increases to $15,000. If you sell the stock, you pay capital gains taxes on the difference between the $50,000 and $15,000.

Current Law vs What Could Change

Under current law, your cost basis steps up or steps down when you die. What Mr. Biden wants to do is eliminate the step-up in basis. Consider this. You paid $10,000 for your stock. It’s worth $50,000 at your death. Under current law, your heirs have a cost basis of $50,000.

Likewise, let’s say your parents bought a house several years ago for $50,000. When they die, the house is worth $200,000. Under current law, the basis increases to $200,000.

Under Mr. Biden’s proposal, there would be no step-up in basis.  This means you would have a capital gain of $150,000 when you sold your parents house.

The other disturbing thing about Mr. Biden’s tax plan is the deemed sale at death. This means the tax code would treat a person’s assets as being sold at the date of death (rather than sold when the heirs want to sell them). It would make that capital gains tax due immediately.

Right now, most of those assets pass to others with little to no tax bill. Eliminating the step-up in basis will hit the wallets of many Americans.

Don't Worry Yet

None of this has happened yet. We still do not know who the President-elect is, and we do not know who is going to control the Senate or the House. But this is something to monitor. If you have a question about how any of this could impact you, talk to a financial advisor or a tax professional.
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About the Author

Neal Watson is a Certified Financial Planner™ Professional and a Financial Advisor with Fleming Watson Financial Advisors.    He specializes in helping hard working, middle class families plan for retirement.

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Should I Use My Savings To Pay Off my Mortgage?

Should I Use My Savings To Pay Off My Mortgage?

This question is from Karen. She asks, “With interest rates so low, we aren’t earning anything on our savings. I’m also worried about another significant drop in the stock market. Should I take money from my savings to pay off my mortgage?”

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There are two parts to this. One is eliminating debt. The other is what is the better use of your money?

Paying off debt is never a bad thing, especially as you get closer to retirement. According to the Employee Benefits Research Institute, the largest annual expenditure for people 50 and older is housing. If you can pay off your mortgage before you retire, it can help you have a more successful retirement.

There is also a huge psychological boost to being debt-free. What happens if the economy shuts down again and you get laid off? Not having a mortgage payment can reduce your stress. It’s less stressful knowing you don’t have to come up with $1,000 each month when you’re not working. We cannot underestimate the value of being debt-free.

What is the best way to do this? Here are some factors to consider. These apply whether you’re using a lump sum or paying extra on your principal. 

Compare interest rates

The first thing is to compare your current interest rate to what you earn on your savings and investments. If your mortgage interest rate is high, 4% or more, and you’re earning 0.75% (or less) on your savings, this decision is easy. The difference in the cost of your money compared to what you’re earning is significant. Using your savings to pay down or pay off your mortgage makes a lot of sense. If your interest rate is closer to 3%, and you’re invested in something that has a potential to earn 8%, the math changes.

Your age

The second factor is your age. For someone under 40, the value of compounded returns from investing can be better for your future. If you are closer to retirement, the benefit to paying off that mortgage is more valuable.

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use savings pay off mortgage

How long will you live there?

Are you planning to stay in your house for a long period of time? If you’re planning to remain there for several years, paying off the mortgage makes more sense. If you’re planning to sell your home in the next 36 months, I’m not sure the answer is as clear. You may not want to pay off your mortgage if you plan to sell it in the very near future.

Tax costs

What are the potential tax costs to raise the funds to pay off your mortgage? Does that come from an IRA or a 401k? If it does, then the entire distribution can be taxable.

Here is an example. If you need $100,000 to pay off your mortgage, you may need to withdraw $133,000 from an IRA. The extra amount will cover the taxes. That is a very expensive way to pay off your mortgage.

Selling stock to pay off your mortgage can also result in a significant tax cost. Your sales proceeds are $100,000. You paid $50,000 for those shares. You will incur $7,500 in capital gains taxes and some additional state income tax. That is also an expensive way to pay off your mortgage.

If the money is in a savings account, there is no tax cost to use it for your mortgage.

Paying off debt is rarely a bad choice, but you need to look at it from all angles and make an intelligent choice.

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About the Author

Neal Watson is a Certified Financial Planner™ Professional and a Financial Advisor with Fleming Watson Financial Advisors.    He specializes in helping hard working, middle class families plan for retirement.

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10 Years From Retirement: What Should I Be Doing?

10 Years Away From Retirement: What Should We Be Doing?

Heidi asks: “We’re 10 years away from retirement.  What should we be doing to prepare? Should we pay off our mortgage before we retire?”

Please note:  This is a highlight from our July Ask a CFP Pro show.

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Transcript: 10 years from retirement: What should we be doing?

We want to retire in about 10 years. What’s the best way to prepare for that? And is it best pay off our house before retiring?

Still in growth mode

If you’re 10 years away from retirement, you still should be in growth mode. This means you’re more heavily invested in stocks. You’re looking to pursue higher returns.

Over the next decade, bonds aren’t going to help you a whole lot. You’re looking at 1% to 2% returns going forward based on current yields.

If there is a major downturn in the stock market, you have some time to recover from that. Even though we’re not out of this bear market yet, there could be another one in the future. You’re still going to be able to recover. If we do have that downturn again, it becomes a great buying opportunity. You may never find prices that low again.

Volatility shouldn’t be a significant concern at this point. As you get closer, when you’re five years away, that story may change. But, right now, you still have the ability to enjoy those compounded returns. If you can save and invest for higher returns, it should pay off for you in the long term.

I wouldn’t have any problems being 100% invested in stocks for the next four or five years, if I were you. I think the benefits will outweigh the long term risk. It could be tough to do. When you have those volatile times, nobody likes to see their balances go down. But again, I think the growth will be significant for you.

Eliminate debt

Should you pay off your house before you retire? If you can do so in a reasonable fashion, absolutely—yes! In fact, you should try to have all your debts paid off by the time you retire. That means car payments, your mortgage, and credit card debts. The fewer expenses you have, the better your retirement is going to be.

Retirement is all about cash flow. In our experience, the biggest reason people run out of money is because they spend too much. And debt payments are a form of spending. So the more you spend to pay debts, the less you have to do other things. Or it could mean you have to take more money from your nest egg than you should.

Eliminating debt can be a huge boost to your retirement plans as a whole.

Here are some other things that you want to do

Know your Social Security numbers…

Get your Social Security earnings record and benefit estimates. This is going to be a key component in helping you plan for retirement. It will help you make good decisions about when to start your Social Security benefits. And for most of us, it’s still a key part of our income.

Get organized

Get things organized. Understand where all your accounts are and how they’re invested. This allows you to create a better plan.

What does retirement look like?

It’s too soon to do detailed budgeting. But at the same time, you can start thinking about what your retirement is going to look like. You can think about what you want to do in retirement. Then you can see how much it will cost.

Health insurance

Have a good idea of what your health insurance is going to be if you’re going to retire before age 65. This is huge. If you have to go out and buy your own health insurance, that’s a big expense that you’re going to incur. You want to know what that’s going to be because it will have an impact on the numbers.

Work on your current cash flow

The last thing I would suggest is get your current cash flow situation in order. Know where your money’s going. Know how you’re spending it. If you can rearrange things to focus more on saving and eliminating debt, you’ll be glad you did. You have to make those things a priority. When you do that, you’ll have some flexibility and freedom in your retirement.

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Neal Watson is a Certified Financial Planner™ Professional and a Financial Advisor with Fleming Watson Financial Advisors.    He specializes in helping hard working, middle class families plan for retirement.

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3 Ideas to Plan For Lower Returns

3 Ideas to Help Plan for Lower Returns

What we earn on our nest egg is a key component to our future plans. Over the past month, we talked about the potential impact of both lower bond and stock returns. What can you do to prepare for this? Today we’ll share 3 ideas to help you plan for lower future investment returns.

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3 ideas to help plan for lower returns

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3 ideas to plan for lower returns

Check out the other episodes from this month...

All month long, we’ve talked about the possibility of lower future returns for both stocks and bonds.  

What happens if future returns are less than historical averages? Bond yields indicate the future results from those investments could be well below their averages. And many “experts” believe future stock returns could also be less. This combination creates some significant challenges as you head into retirement.

Here are 3 things you can do to plan for lower future returns.

1. Delay Your Retirement

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Delaying your retirement improves your Social Security and pension benefits (if you will receive a pension). This works three different ways.  It shrinks the discounts you face for early retirement.  It increases your primary benefit. Or, with Social Security, you can receive delayed retirement credits. 

Waiting to retire also helps solve a problem with health insurance in retirement.  You are eligible to receive Medicare at age 65.  This means you won’t have to buy an expensive individual health insurance policy. 

Delaying retirement also allows you to reduce debt, save more, and benefit from compounded returns.

2. Monitor Your Spending

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In my experience, the primary reason people run out of money in retirement is overspending. The more you withdraw from your nest egg, the higher the chance you deplete your savings. Take a good look at your retirement budget. Try to find expenses or costs you can eliminate.

3 ideas to help plan for lower returns

3. Own More Stocks

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Investing involves a trade off. Trying to earn more can mean the short-term shocks are more severe. But, it may be necessary to consider an allocation that provides more opportunities for long-term growth. This may be hard to do, considering we haven’t completely recovered from a pretty steep drop. But in the long-run, the risks could be worth it, even if it is for a short period of time.

Be Flexible

It is important to be flexible.  The plans you created may need to be adjusted as the world around us changes.  None of us know what future returns will be.  But we need to consider what happens if future returns are lower.  Making good decisions now can help improve your chances for longer term success.  And, if things turn out better than expected, everything will be fine.

3 ideas to help plan for lower returns
3 ideas to help plan for lower returns

 

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Neal Watson is a Certified Financial Planner™ Professional and a Financial Advisor with Fleming Watson Financial Advisors.    He specializes in helping hard working, middle class families plan for retirement.

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Is the 4 Percent Rule Dead?

Is the 4 Percent Rule Dead?

Over the past two weeks, we’ve discussed expected future returns for both stocks and bonds. Several experts feel the future results will be much lower than historical averages. So that makes us wonder, “Is the 4 percent rule dead?”

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Lower expected future returns for both stocks and bonds can affect your retirement. Many “experts” expect stocks to produce below-average returns over the next decade. They forecast somewhere in the neighborhood of 6.5% per year. They also expect lower returns from bonds—somewhere between 1 and 2 % per year.

Lower Future Returns and the 4 Percent Rule

If these lower returns happen, it can create a major challenge for retirees. If these predictions hold, a well-balanced portfolio would earn somewhere between 4% and 5% per year.

Is the 4 percent rule dead

For the past 20 years or so, we’ve been big believers in the 4% rule for generating retirement income. This rules says you can take 4% of your retirement savings as income. So if you have a $500,000 nest egg, that translates to $20,000 per year or $1,666 per month.

Why Do We Believe in The 4 Percent Rule?

We use this guideline because it reduces the risk of running out of money during your lifetime. This has been back-tested during some of the biggest bear markets, and it has a high rate of success.

When you use historical return data, you can see why. Historical data shows a 60% stock-40% bond portfolio should grow by about 7% per year. So if you only take 4%, you would expect your account to grow by 3% per year. That’s enough to help your income grow each year to maintain your purchasing power.

What if Returns are Lower?

But what happens if the experts are right? What if those returns are less than average? Does the 4% rule still work?

In theory, if you earn at least 4% per year, you can take that much income and still maintain your principal. But there are a couple of things that come to mind. First, your odds of success will decrease a little. And, your ability to grow your principal to grow your income is also limited.

The second thing: what if you need to take more than 4% from your savings?  A lower return environment going forward means you will increase the risk of running out of money during your lifetime.

Balancing Risk and Reward

Financial planners always talk about balancing risks and rewards. And the amount of income you take from your retirement savings is a perfect example. The 4% rule is simply a guideline to help you think about that risk. And even with lower returns expected in the future, it still has merit.

No matter what future returns are, one thing remains true. The higher your withdrawal rate, the more you risk running out of money. If you are unsure of how this impacts you, talk to a financial planner.

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About the Author

Neal Watson is a Certified Financial Planner™ Professional and a Financial Advisor with Fleming Watson Financial Advisors.    He specializes in helping hard working, middle class families plan for retirement.

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