Ask a CFP® Pro: What Happens to Stocks if Trump Loses the Election?
What happens to stocks if President Trump loses the election? We’ll tackle that one and six others on this week’s Ask a CFP® Pro show. Scroll down for a timeline of this episode, some useful graphs, and the full transcript of today’s show.
Listen Now: Ask a CFP® Pro: What Happens to Stocks if Trump Loses the Election? (29:20)
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Today we talk about:
- An update for the stock market for the first half of 2020. (0:46) Click here to read that section (PICTURES!!!!)
- Some tax relief if you took your Required Minimum Distribution early in the year. (3:07) Click here to skip to that section
- A tax deduction created by the CARES Act (even if you don’t itemize). (3:44) Click here to skip to that section
Here are the questions:
The money in my checking account isn’t earning anything, and I probably have too much in that account anyhow. What can I do to earn a better return on my cash? (5:02) Click here to read
- How will the Charles Schwab – TD Ameritrade Merger affect me? (9:31) Click here to read
If we are setting up a college account for a grandchild, do we have to open the account in the state in which they live? Can we set it up in Ohio even though they live in North Carolina? (11:28) Click here to read and for links
- What are some of the things people with lower income, who are just getting started invest in? (13:41) Click here to read
How do you select dividend producing stocks? (17:03) Click here to read and for links
What happens to stocks if Trump loses the election? (20:45) Click here for pictures!
- What is the best way to invest for retirement about 10 years before you retire? Is it best to pay off your house before retirement? (23:59) Click here to read
Transcript: What Happens if Trump Loses the Election?
The Stock Market in the first half (0:46)
The first half of the year has been absolutely crazy. It’s as crazy as we’ve seen in our careers. And we’ve been doing this for a couple days. We’ve been through the dot com bust. We went through the Great Recession and now we’re doing the whole coronavirus thing. And that was the big story that affected the economy, our lives and the stock market in the first half of the year.
A big drop…
The S&P 500 experienced a near 34% drop in 33 days, mid cap stocks dropped 42% and small cap stocks dropped 43%. And you would expect that for the year the stock market would be in a deep hole. Here are total returns through June 29th. The S&P 500, which are large-cap stocks, were only down about five and a half percent. Mid cap stocks, represented by the S&P 400, were down about 8% and the small cap stocks were down about 12.5%.
A big bounce…
We’ve had a stunning rebound. The prices for the S&P 500 have rebounded over 36% in a little over three months. It’s not something that I can ever recall seeing by memory. But when I look back at some things, I found something somewhat interesting.
Prior Recoveries at 98 Days
The dot com bust which happened In 2000-2003, lasted about two years to go from top to bottom, Prices dropped 50%. And if you look at the same 98 days following the bottom that we’ve done now, prices rebounded about 18% back in 2003. In order for that bear market to completely recover, it took about 56 months.
During the great recession in 2007 to 2009, the stock market dropped 57%. And it took about 18 months to get there. If you look at the 98 days that followed the bottom in 2009, stock prices recovered 36.5%—like they have this time. I found that interesting. The Great Recession did take about four years to recover from the bottom to a new high.
We’re not quite to a new high yet—we’re getting close. But, to me, it’s been amazing how quickly things have recovered in the stock market.
Relief for Required Minimum Distributions (3:07)
We’ve talked in the past about required minimum distributions. Those were waived for 2020. If you had taken your distribution in January, you were unable to return that money to your IRA as a rollover. Rollover rules state you must return any withdrawal within 60 days.
Last week, the IRS issued a ruling. It said any distribution taken in January or February can now be returned by the 31st of August.
A New Tax Deduction (3:44)
The next thing we want to talk about is something we missed in the CARES act. It wasn’t a real prominent thing. The act allows an “above the line” tax deduction for charitable contributions up to $300.
A few years ago when they passed the tax law, there was a new standard deduction. For couples, it’s $24,800, and for individuals, it’s $12,400. It made it nearly impossible for folks to itemize. If you can’t itemize your deductions, you cannot deduct your charitable contributions.
It’s estimated by the IRS that 90% of filers now claim the standard deduction. So you didn’t get any tax benefit for some of those contributions to charity.
Part of the CARES act creates this above the line deduction. This means it comes off the front page of your tax return. You don’t have to worry about itemizing.
You can take a tax deduction of up to $300. It’s not a lot, but something you find beneficial as we go forward.
Question 1: How Can I Earn More on My Cash? (5:02)
The Question: The money in my checking account isn’t earning anything. I probably have too much in that account anyhow. What can I do to earn a better return on my cash?
How much cash?
We have two issues here. The first is how much cash do you need to have on hand? And how can you improve the returns on the cash you do hold?
So “the how much cash” question to us comes down to time frames? What are you going to need cash wise in the next 24 months? Any significant expenses need to be in those safe cash-type assets. Because those accounts aren’t going to decrease in value.
This would include:
- your emergency fund, which is three to six months of expenses,
- any planned major expenses you have over the next two years. Things like a vacation. If you know you’re going to have major home repairs, or a car purchase.
- Anything over $1,000 like insurance deductibles
Then after you cover those first two years, you can start looking at the next two to five years. That’s an area where you can reach for more return. But, you still want to have some stability in the value of those funds. You want to cover any planned expenses and some cushion for any unplanned costs you might incur.
Anything beyond five years, you can start investing for growth. And we talked about the five-year threshold. The reason for this is the last two bear markets. We talked about the dot com bust and the Great Recession. Both took between four to five years to completely recover. If we have a another significant pullback in stocks, you can expect to recover in that time frame.
Where should You invest?
Where should you hold your cash? That’s the second question. A bank account is the obvious place. One of the problems we’ve seen is interest rates were cut to near zero. Most of the local banks aren’t paying anything at all.
One of the things that we’ve done over the last several years is use some of the online banks. We’ve used Capital One for a long time. But they’re not as competitive. Right now they’re paying about a half a percent on their savings account.
The interesting thing about these banks is all three of them are big credit card companies. They’re loaning money out at 18 plus percent. This allows them to pay you a little bit more. You would think they would pay you more than 1.1%.
You link those online banks to your local bank account. You’re able to transfer money back and forth via their website. But you have to be aware, there’s a two to three day lead time for most transfers. You’ll need to think ahead a little bit.
Intermediate Term Money (2-5 Years)
When you start talking about that two to five-year bucket, you could consider CD’s. But there’s not much with any returns out there. Many times we’re using short term bond funds. They can help push your yields towards 2%.
If you’re using an exchange traded fund, there are typically no transaction fees to buy or sell those. You can also use mutual funds, but we’ve run into some issues with some of those. Some funds have short term trading fees. This means if you need the money inside of 30 or 60 days, you may have to pay an extra to sell them. You have to be aware of that before you use them.
You could look at some bonds with longer maturities or even preferred stocks to boost yields. But that comes with a trade-off. That trade-off is price movement. Anything you do to reach for more return, you introduce more market value risk.
Long Term Money (5+ Years)
Beyond five years, you’re looking for growth assets. This means common stocks, preferred stocks, or even high yield or junk bonds. Because there’s more growth involved, and there’s also a lot more price volatility.
Question 2: The Schwab-TD Merger (9:31)
Will the Charles Schwab merger with TD Ameritrade affect me?
In the financial industry, this was big news. Schwab is the largest custodian and it is buying the second largest custodian. A custodian is a company who holds your investment positions and hold your accounts. They also execute trades. It’s an important relationship in the grand scheme of things.
At Fleming Watson, we do not have custody of our clients assets. We selected TD Ameritrade to do that when we did this back in 2016.
The deal will be closing later this year. The government did not object to the merger. And shareholders of both companies approved it. We’re being told it’s going to take somewhere between 18 and 36 months for most of the accounts to be transferred. We understand that there won’t be any new paperwork required.
How will this impact you? If your account is at TD Ameritrade, your statements will look different. If you check your account balances online, you’ll go to a different website. And if you have a retail account, you’ll have a whole new interface to get used to.
If your account is at Schwab, it probably won’t change much at all.
It will have a bigger impact on the advisors who use TD Ameritrade. We considered Charles Schwab and TD Ameritrade along with Fidelity in 2016. We settled on TD Ameritrade because we felt they were the best fit for us.
Now, we’re going to be moving to Schwab, who was our second choice at the time. We have to get used to something completely different. It will impact how we do trades and other things with our custodian. But for our clients, it’s really not going to have a big impact.
Question 3: Which State's 529 Plan Do I Use? (11:28)
I’m setting up a college account for one of my grandchildren. Do I need to open the account in the state where they live? Or can I set it up in Ohio even though they live in North Carolina?
This refers to 529 savings plans. Those accounts have some tax benefits when the funds are used for education expenses. There are some tax benefits when you’re making contributions as well. That comes in the form of a state income tax deduction.
If you live in Ohio, you can deduct up to $4,000 of your contribution per beneficiary. And if you live in West Virginia, that amount is up to $15,000 per beneficiary per spouse. This means a couple can deduct up to $30,000 from their state income.
You can use any state’s plan you want. It’s not like the old prepaid tuition plans. With those, you were buying the cost of a credit-hour at an Ohio institution. You would then redeem them as a credit hour going forward. Whatever you put in the account has cash value and whatever the value is, it is. That’s what you use to pay for those qualified educational expenses.
When you use those 529 accounts for qualified educational expenses, the distributions are not taxed.
Get your deduction
But here’s the deal. If you use another state’s plan, you don’t get to take the state income tax deduction—if you live in Ohio or West Virginia. If you live in Ohio and you use North Carolina’s plan, you miss out on the state income tax deduction. If you live in West Virginia and use Nebraska’s plan, you miss out on that current tax benefit as well.
But if you live in Ohio and use Ohio’s plan, you get to deduct your contribution against your state income. And if you live in West Virginia, and you use West Virginia’s plan, you get to deduct even more.
If you can get the current income tax deduction, use your state’s plan. If your kids want to set up their plan in another state and make contributions that’s fine, too. They’re not limited to how many 529 accounts you can have for a single beneficiary. But it makes sense that you get the tax benefit for making the contributions if you can.
Question 4: Getting started as an investor (13:41)
How can someone with a smaller income get started with investing?
This is an excellent question. I’m glad you’re thinking about doing something for your future. The good news is the costs to invest have come down a lot. We now live in a world where there are no commissions on stocks or ETFs. That means you can buy one share of a company and it won’t cost you any transaction fees.
Years ago, the cost to buy stocks was significant, maybe $200-$300 to buy 100 shares of stock. And when I started in 1996, I think we were charging probably somewhere between $75 and $150 for a stock trade. If you didn’t have a lot of money, it was difficult to start buying individual stocks. And if you wanted to buy an odd lot, which is something that is not divisible by 100, there were additional fees.
This is before a lot of things got highly computerized. Now everything is computerized. Now buying and selling a single share is no big deal. If you want to buy one share of something like Southwest Airlines, for example, it will cost you around $30 to $35.
The Challenges of Buying Individual Stocks or ETFs
Now, the downside to buying stocks and exchange traded funds is having enough to at least buy one share. If you were looking at something like Amazon, it’s trading over $2,600. To buy one share of Amazon, you still have to have $2,600. Netflix is over $450. Google is $1400. And even something like the exchange traded fund which tracks the S&P 500(SPY) trades for over $300 a share. You have to watch what you want to buy. If you only have $50, you’re not going to be able to buy shares of Amazon. You’re not even going to be able to buy a share of the SPY ETF.
Buying fractional shares is something that’s coming. And there are a few startups who are diving into this. But it isn’t mainstream yet. I’ve read where Schwab is investigating fractional shares. When that happens, you’ll be able to then buy fractional shares of something like Amazon. If you have $200, you’ll be able to buy a tenth of a share.
This means you turn to the old handy-dandy mutual funds. You have no-load funds from Fidelity or Vanguard. If you have $50 a month, you can put that into an ultra-low cost fund. You can buy fractional shares with a mutual fund. You may only buy .526 shares this month.
There’s other online services like Robinhood and Betterment. They make it very easy to get started for very little cost. The good news is it’s never been easier or cheaper to invest in stocks and get started in investing for your future.
Question 5: Picking Dividend Payers (17:03)
How do you select dividend producing stocks?
Generally where I start is I look at the dividend aristocrats list. Their criteria comes down to two things. It’s got to be in the S&P 500. So that means it’s a very large company. And the company has grown their dividend for 25 consecutive years. Right now there are 66 companies who qualify.
Here’s the reason I like starting here. When companies who pay a good dividend reduce their payout, the impact on their share price is bad. In our experience, we’ve seen what happens when some of the drug companies cut their dividend. Their share price will drop a lot. People’s Bank is another example. Their dividend has been up and down through the years. And if they reduce their dividend, their price value has dropped significantly.
We like companies who at least have been able to maintain their dividends. We prefer companies who’ve been able to grow their dividends over time. From there, we generally start looking at the ones that pay a 2.5% to 3% yield or more. Owning that dividend that pays 1% isn’t quite as attractive. So we’ll trim that list of 66 down to those companies that are paying a little bit more.
The Next Step
Next, we look at the payout ratio. The payout ratio is how much is the dividend of that company’s profits. If a company is earning $2 per share in profit and they’re paying out $2.10 per share in dividends, that’s a real problem. It’s not something that you can maintain. If something happens that reduces earnings, they may not be able to maintain their dividend.
We generally like when the payout ratio is two-thirds of its earnings (or less). So if a company has $1 in earnings, we prefer they pay $.66 per share (or less) in dividends.
The other factors
Then we’ll look at some other subjective factors. How expensive is the stock relative to its earnings? What does the company do? Do we understand what the company’s doing and what’s happening in their industry? We want to understand what we own and we also want to make sure that we’re not paying too much for that stock.
We don’t exclude companies that are on that list. But if I’m asked to find some, that’s where I’m going to start.
Snow or rain, it’s all water.
There’s one saying that, that stuck with me for a while, “Snow or rain, it’s all water.” Increases in value, are as good as dividends. It all benefits you in some way, shape or form. There are some good companies out there who have generated a lot of wealth, and they don’t pay a dividend. (Or if they do, the dividend is small.) We talked about Amazon earlier. Amazon is a perfect example of that. The return for Amazon over the last 30 years is astounding, and they’ve never paid a dividend.
You can generate income from your investments without dividend or interest payments. Systematic withdrawals have been around for years. We’ve used them for our clients for years.
Dividend paying stocks aren’t the end all-be all of investing. Some people like them. Sometimes dividend stocks, at least the reliable dividend payers, don’t have as much volatility. But you shouldn’t make that the only thing you want to do with your investment portfolio. Growth of principal is a good thing too.
Question 6: What Will Happen to Stocks if Trump Loses? (20:45)
If President Trump loses the upcoming election? What effect will this have on the stock market?
We like to steer clear of politics. We don’t want to get into who will win or lose. The election will happen this year, and you can’t hide from it. Depending on who you support, you’re going to feel differently about any answer we give to this question.
In general terms, most people would view republicans as more pro-business. They are a party that prefers less regulation and prefers lower taxes. And most people would categorize democrats as not as business-friendly. They prefer more regulation, and they’re not afraid to tax corporations.
You would think that the stock market would do better when a republican controls the White House. But there’s something interesting and surprising. The opposite of that is true.
Looking at the numbers…
We went back to 1949— or 70 years—and started with Truman’s second term as President. We went through the end of last year. Here’s what we found. Using calendar years, the average total return for the stock market when a democrat was in the White House is 14.4% per year. The average total return for the stock market when a Republican was in the White House is 8.8% per year.
Does that mean the stock market will do better under Joe Biden than it will for Donald Trump? Nobody knows. Whoever takes over in January 2021 is going to be dealing with a lot of interesting things. We still have this Coronavirus thing hanging over our heads. The economy is a long, long way from recovering. It could be a difficult situation for whoever’s in charge.
There’s nothing that says if Biden wins, the stock market’s going to do great. And nothing says if Trump wins, the stock market’s going to do great. Nothing in these numbers should be taken as a forecast for the future.
I don’t know if the stock market cares who occupies the White House. It does well under both parties. Companies find ways to make money no matter who’s in charge. I wouldn’t sell because Joe Biden wins. And, I wouldn’t sell if Trump wins reelection either. Find good companies, have a long term outlook when you buy stocks, and things will have a tendency to work out over time.
Question 7: 10 Years Until Retirement. What should we do? (23:59)
We want to retire in about 10 years. What’s the best way to prepare for that. And is it best or is it a smart move to go ahead and pay off our house before retiring?
Still in growth mode
If you’re 10 years away from retirement, you still should be in growth mode. This means you’re more heavily invested in stocks. You’re looking to pursue higher returns.
Over the next decade, bonds aren’t going to help you a whole lot. You’re looking at 1% to 2% returns going forward based on current yields.
If there is a major downturn in the stock market, you have some time to recover from that. Even though we’re not out of this bear market yet, there could be another one in the future. You’re still going to be able to recover. If we do have that downturn again, it becomes a great buying opportunity. You may never find prices that low again.
Volatility shouldn’t be a significant concern at this point. As you get closer, when you’re five years away, that story may change. But, right now, you still have the ability to enjoy those compounded returns. If you can save and invest for higher returns, it should pay off for you in the long term.
I wouldn’t have any problems being 100% invested in stocks for the next four or five years, if I were you. I think the benefits will outweigh the long term risk. It could be tough to do. When you have those volatile times, nobody likes to see their balances go down. But again, I think the growth will be significant for you.
Should you pay off your house before you retire? If you can do so in a reasonable fashion? Absolutely—yes! In fact, you should try to have all your debts paid off by the time you retire. That means car payments, your mortgage, and credit card debts. The fewer expenses you have, the better your retirement is going to be.
Retirement is all about cash flow. In our experience, the biggest reason people run out of money is because they spend too much. And debt payments are a form of spending. So the more you spend to pay debts, the less you have to do other things. Or it could mean you have to take more money from your nest egg than you should.
Eliminating debt can be a huge boost to your retirement plans as a whole.
Here are some other things that you want to do
Know your Social Security numbers…
Get your Social Security earnings record and benefit estimates. This is going to be a key component in helping you plan for retirement. It will help you make good decisions about when to start your Social Security benefits. And for most of us, it’s still a key part of our income.
Get things organized. Understand where all your accounts are and how they’re invested. This allows you to create a better plan.
What does retirement look like?
It’s too soon to do detailed budgeting. But at the same time, you can start thinking about what your retirement is going to look like. You can think about what you want to do in retirement. Then you can see how much it will cost.
Have a good idea of what your health insurance is going to be if you’re going to retire before age 65. This is huge. If you have to go out and buy your own health insurance, that’s a big expense that you’re going to incur. You want to know what that’s going to be because it will have an impact on the numbers.
Work on your current cash flow:
The last thing that I would suggest is get your current cash flow situation in order. Know where your money’s going. Know how you’re spending it. If you can rearrange things to focus more on saving and eliminating debt, you’ll be glad you did. You have to make those things a priority. When you do that, you’ll have some flexibility and freedom in your retirement.
About the Author
Neal Watson is a Certified Financial Planner™ Professional and a Financial Advisor with Fleming Watson Financial Advisors. He specializes in helping hard working, middle class families plan for retirement.