How Could Your Taxes Change in 2021?

How Could Your Taxes Change in 2021?

How could your income taxes change in 2021? We’re still waiting on election results. But we can look ahead to the potential changes to your taxes if Joe Biden wins the election.

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Here’s what we know about Mr. Biden’s tax plan.

Improving and Adding Certain Tax Credits

He wants to improve and add tax credits.  His plan calls for:

  • increasing the Child and Dependent Care tax credit. (this is for daycare costs)
  • expanding the earned income tax credit for people over 65.
  • renewable energy credits for electric vehicles and solar panels.
  • restoring the first-time homebuyers tax credit.
  • for 2021—and as long as economic conditions dictate—increasing the child tax credit.

Tax Credits for Retirement Savings

His plan also wants to equalize the tax benefits of retirement plan contributions. Right now, people get a deduction for some of those retirement plan contributions. He wants to change this to a tax credit.

What is the difference between a tax deduction and a tax credit? Which is better?

 
A Tax Deduction is something which reduces your income. If you earned $1,000, and have a $200 deduction, your adjusted income is $800. You compute your tax using the reduced amount. If your tax rate is 15%, your $200 deduction will lower your taxes by $30.
 
A Tax Credit is a direct reduction of your income tax liability. If your tax liability is $1,000, and you have a $200 credit, your tax bill is $800.
 
In most cases tax credits are better than tax deductions.

Tax Increases for High Earners and Corporations

Mr. Biden also wants to increase taxes for those people who make a lot of money. If you make over $400,000, you can expect a significant tax increase.

  • your social security taxes will go up.
  • The maximum tax rate that you pay on your income will also increase.
  • If you are a business owner, you will lose the qualified business deduction.
  • It will also tax capital gains and qualified dividends as ordinary income for those making over $1 million.
  • It will also limit the benefits of itemized deductions.

He also wants to increase the taxes on businesses. The corporate tax rate under Mr. Biden’s proposal goes from 21% to 28%.

Lastly, he wants to restore federal estate taxes back to 2009 levels.

The Most Concerning Tax Change

There is something in Mr. Biden’s tax plan that will impact a lot of people. It involves how your cost basis is treated at a person’s death.

What is cost basis? 

Your “cost basis” is what you pay for an asset. Whether you buy a house, a stock, a rental property or a bond, whatever you pay for that asset is your cost basis. If you add money to it, it increases your cost basis.

The cost basis is important when you sell that asset. You pay capital gains tax on the difference between the sale price and your cost basis. Let’s look at an example. Let’s say you buy a stock for $10,000. After several years, the value has grown to $50,000. If you sell that stock, you pay capital gains on the difference between the sale proceeds of $50,000 and your cost basis ($10,000). You would owe taxes on $40,000.

How Could Your Taxes Change in 2021

If you had reinvested the dividends from that stock, your cost basis increased. Let’s say you reinvested $5,000 of dividends, the cost basis increases to $15,000. If you sell the stock, you pay capital gains taxes on the difference between the $50,000 and $15,000.

Current Law vs What Could Change

Under current law, your cost basis steps up or steps down when you die. What Mr. Biden wants to do is eliminate the step-up in basis. Consider this. You paid $10,000 for your stock. It’s worth $50,000 at your death. Under current law, your heirs have a cost basis of $50,000.

Likewise, let’s say your parents bought a house several years ago for $50,000. When they die, the house is worth $200,000. Under current law, the basis increases to $200,000.

Under Mr. Biden’s proposal, there would be no step-up in basis.  This means you would have a capital gain of $150,000 when you sold your parents house.

The other disturbing thing about Mr. Biden’s tax plan is the deemed sale at death. This means the tax code would treat a person’s assets as being sold at the date of death (rather than sold when the heirs want to sell them). It would make that capital gains tax due immediately.

Right now, most of those assets pass to others with little to no tax bill. Eliminating the step-up in basis will hit the wallets of many Americans.

Don't Worry Yet

None of this has happened yet. We still do not know who the President-elect is, and we do not know who is going to control the Senate or the House. But this is something to monitor. If you have a question about how any of this could impact you, talk to a financial advisor or a tax professional.
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About the Author

Neal Watson is a Certified Financial Planner™ Professional and a Financial Advisor with Fleming Watson Financial Advisors.    He specializes in helping hard working, middle class families plan for retirement.

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How Will the 2020 Presidential Election Affect the Stock Market?

How Will the 2020 Presidential Election Affect the Stock Market?

How will the 2020 presidential election affect the stock market? That’s a big question on the minds of many. Today, we’ll dig into some numbers. We’ll show you what happened to the stock market in the three months before and after previous presidential elections.

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2020 election affect the stock market

This year is off to a crazy start. It started with the Coronavirus. That caused the stock market to drop by about 34%. From the bottom of the bear market to today, we’re now close to all-time highs. The stock market has increased by almost 50%.

The virus is still a factor in our lives. Now we get to add a presidential election to the mix. How will the campaign season influence the market?

Elections and the Stock Market: Historical Data

We are focusing on the three months before a presidential election. This means August, September and October. And we are looking at the three months after. This includes November, December, and January. We have nine election years going back to 1980.

The 3 Months Before

The average gain of the stock market for the three months before an election was about 0.75%. Stocks improved six out of the nine years.

The 3 Months After

For the three months after an election, the stocks gained 2.36%, on average. It was positive in seven of the nine years.

The Outlier: 2008

There was an outlier. 2008 was a really bad year. From August to October 2008, the stock market dropped by about 23%. Following the election, the stock market continued to decline. It fell another 22.5%.

If you remove this outlier from the data set, the results look much different. 

Leading up to the election, the gain improves to about 3.5%. After the election, if you take out this outlier, the stock market improved 5%.

Will this year be more like 2008?

The election didn’t have the type of impact on the stock market that one might think. But you might be wondering right now, “Will this year be more like 2008?”

But there are also reasons to expect this rally to continue. Some data points to better things ahead.

Vaccine Progress

Companies are making progress on a vaccine. A lot of the optimism in the stock market relates to the optimism of a vaccine coming to market sometime next year. There are a number of companies now entering second and third stage trials.

The Big Question: Do Your Long Term Plans Depend on the 2020 Election?

It is hard to make big allocation decisions based on short term events. Most of the historical data points to the election not being a significant factor to stock market performance.

Your long term plans aren’t likely to change based on the outcome of this election. This makes it very difficult to make a decision based on that outcome.  .

The election concerns many people. There’s a very big divide between the two sides. It’s very contentious and very emotional. This creates a desire do something. Some think if “Candidate A” wins, things are going to go downhill. And if “Candidate B” wins, things are going to be great. But we don’t know what that outcome will be.

Making big decisions based on short-term events, creates more chances to make mistakes. That’s not a real good way to do things.

You need to base your asset allocation decisions on your long term plans. You shouldn’t base them on what happens in a presidential election.

Have Questions?

If you have questions about your situation or would like to discuss how the pandemic and bear market have affected you, click the button to arrange a call.

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Neal Watson is a Certified Financial Planner™ Professional and a Financial Advisor with Fleming Watson Financial Advisors.    He specializes in helping hard working, middle class families plan for retirement.

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Ask a CFP® Pro: Do I Need Medicare Supplement Insurance?

Ask a CFP® Pro: Do I Need Medicare Supplement Insurance?

Today on our show, we offer a simple, low-cost estate planning tip to help you avoid probate.  We talk about the current bear market, and share some expert predictions.  And we answer three questions.  The big one: do I need Medicare supplement insurance?

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Episode Transcript: Do I Need Medicare Supplement Insurance?

Estate Planning Tip: Transfer On Death Provisions

One of the things we’re going to talk about today is a basic estate planning tip. Oftentimes people ask us what happens to their accounts when they die. A lot of times, they’re trying to avoid the probate process. The probate process can be somewhat inefficient. So let’s talk today about it. Let’s talk about what happens when an account owner dies? What happens to their account.

Standard Individual Accounts

If a person has an individual account.  What happens when they die? we have to open an estate account. In order to do that, we will need:

  • A tax ID number for the Estate (normally the attorney applies for it)
  • A copy of the owner’s death certificate,
  • And a court-certified letter of testamentary. Sometime this is called a court appointment, which names the executor of the estate.

When we do that the original account is frozen. We can’t do any transactions in that account, and we can’t send out any money.

Once we get all the paperwork together, the assets transfer into the estate account. 

How long does it take to transfer an estate account to the beneficiaries?

That’s completely up to the executor. We need a letter signed by them to distribute those assets from the estate account. It can be pretty quick. They can also leave it there for an extended period of time. It’s completely up to them and how quickly they want to get that settled.

Some take as few as 30 days. Some take six months or more.

Transfer on Death Provisions

One thing you can do to improve the efficiency of this process is to use a transfer on death registration. What do we need to do to create a TOD account? And, what happens when we have a TOD provision on the account? What happens when the original owner passes away?

The form that the original owner would need to sign is actually called a non-probate TOD agreement. That form names beneficiaries for that individual account. And it specifies how they want the assets in that individual account to be divided.

We need

  • the name of the beneficiary,
  • the social security number and date of birth.
  • We also need the percentage of the assets that will go to each of them.

When the owner passes, the account is frozen. Individual accounts are opened for each beneficiary. We need a copy of the death certificate and a form called a transfer on death affidavit. Each beneficiary signs this form. This allows them to accept the assets from the decedent’s account.

Once we get the forms, the assets can transfer in two to three days.

It’s a lot more efficient than having an estate account. Plus, you don’t have to go through a lot of the probate stuff. It’s not going to completely avoid probate, there still may be some loose ends. But, it’s going to be a whole lot more efficient.

Once those accounts are open, each beneficiary has the option to do whatever they wish. They can liquidate it. They can continue the relationship with our firm. Or they can transfer it to another firm. It’s a much faster and more efficient way to get assets from the original owner to their heirs.

Joint Accounts

Can you add TOD provisions to a joint account?

On a joint account, when the first owner dies all the assets immediately go to the surviving owner. When the second owner dies, you would do it the same as if it was an individual account,

Typically, it goes to the surviving spouse (most of the time). In those cases, the TOD provision on a joint account comes into play if there’s a simultaneous death. Once the account goes to the survivor, they have to do the TOD paperwork all over again.

IRA’s, Retirement Plans, and Insurance Contracts

These provisions don’t apply to IRAs or retirement plans. IRAs and retirement plans have their own beneficiary designations. They are non-probate assets. It also doesn’t apply to insurance contracts like annuities or life insurance. Those also are non-probate assets that have beneficiary designations. It only applies to individual and joint accounts.

Still need a will…

This does not replace the need to have a will or a trust. You should involve your estate planning attorney (if you have one). They may have other ideas that are better suited for you.

This is a simple and easy way for you to do some basic estate planning. And it costs nothing.

Note:

The account owner must sign the TOD application. Powers of attorney cannot sign this form. Even if the power of attorney document says that the agent can name beneficiaries, we require a signature from the account owner.

Let's Talk Stocks...

Medicare Supplement insurance - Bear market

It’s been crazy.

Every time I speak to someone, they say that they can’t believe that the stock market keeps going up like it has. Here’s where we are in the current bear market.

We had a 35% drop in the first quarter. Since then, we’ve seen stock prices increase by about 44%. Year to date, prices are at a breakeven point. We started the year with the S&P 500 at 3,230. On price basis, the S&P 500 is breakeven for the year.

Prices have to go up another 5.5% percent to set a new high. The high point is 3,386. We still have a little bit to go to completely erase the bear.

Given the amount of bad news we’ve had, the increase doesn’t make sense. There is still a lot of potential bad news out there too. It doesn’t seem possible that we’ve erased that big of a drop this fast.

The virus isn’t going away either. Many states are trying to avoid another shutdown. I know we have mask requirements now in Ohio and West Virginia. I saw where Kentucky closed bars and limited restaurant capacity to 25%. States are trying to avoid shutting down, but there are some potential ugly things out there. You can make the case for why this market is going to correct again, but you can also find some rays of sunshine.

Expert Predictions

Medicare Supplement Insurance

It’s interesting to see what some of the experts think. Bloomberg released a recent survey of their equity market experts. They asked 17 analysts for their forecast for the year end value of the S&P 500. The average of the 17 predictions for the year end value is 3100. That’s about a 4% drop from current levels. On average, they think that stocks are a bit ahead of themselves and we’re due for a reset.

Five of these people have predicted that the S&P index will fall below 3000, which would be a 7%% drop from current levels. The lowest prediction is 2,750. That is a significant drop. The highest prediction was 3,500, which would be a new all-time high. That would be about a 7% increase from where we are right now.

How good are these predictions? We’ve talked about this in the past. Crystal balls aren’t always in working order. We really don’t know how accurate these forecasts will be.

If someone were to press me on it, I predict 3,150. I also believe we’ve gone a little bit too far, and we’ll see a small pullback.

Insurance Medicare Supplement
Medicare Supplement Insurance Do I Need

Question 1: Do I Need to Keep My Medicare Supplement Insurance?

If a person has Medicare A and B, plus prescription insurance, what is the benefit of Medicare supplementinsurance? Ours runs around $500 a month and there is no way we come close to that in paid claim benefits. I’m not a healthcare guru. But it seems to me there could be better ways to invest my $6,000 a year.

What does Medicare Cover?

To answer this question, we need to dig into what Medicare covers. Traditional Medicare has two parts. Part A is hospitalization. This covers hospital stays, skilled nursing home visits and hospice care.

Part B covers medical expenses. This includes doctor visits, surgeries and procedures. It also covers preventative care, durable medical equipment, clinical trials, and ambulance services.

Part A

Medicare doesn’t pay 100% of your expenses. Part A, has a $1,408 deductible for your first 60 days in a hospital. That is per benefit period.

A new benefit period starts if you haven’t been in the hospital for 60 days. Here’s an example. If you went into the hospital today, and you were there five days, you’d pay $1408. If you go back to the hospital later this year, say November. You would start a new benefit period. That means you have to pay another $1,408 deductible.

Days 61 through 90 cost you $352 per day, this is your out of pocket cost. And if you’re in a hospital more than 90 days, days 91 plus can cost you up to $704 per day. That’s your risk on the hospitalization side.

Part B

Part B is your medical expenses and is your doctor visits. So you have a $198 deductible. And then Medicare pays 80% of the Medicare approved amount. You pay the other 20% and any of the excess non-approved amounts.

Let’s say you have a joint replacement, and your total bill is $50,000. You pay the first $200. And then you pay 20% of the remaining bill. That’s $10,000! That’s your risk exposure in this case.

What do Medicare Supplements cover?

Medicare supplement insurance policies cover these out of pocket expenses. Most of them cover the Part A deductible. And they cover the Part A coinsurance—which are the costs beyond day 60. They also pay the Part B coinsurance.

Some Medicare supplement insurance policies will pay the Part B deductible. In our experience, you usually pay more in premium than the Part B deductible. We usually don’t recommend policies that cover the Part B deductible. Many will also cover the Part B excess charges. If a doctor bills $1,000 for a procedure and Medicare only approves $800, many of those plans will cover that extra $200. They cover some other things as well.

Is it worth it?

Is $6,000 per year worth it? When you’re healthy, and you don’t have claims, it doesn’t seem like it. But remember, you may not be in good health in the future, and you could have a claim at any time. Your risk exposure to not have that coverage is significant.

In many respects, this is like your homeowner’s policy or your car insurance. You pay premiums for years. If you never have a claim, you start to wonder, “Why do I do this?” But one car accident and you have a $3,500 repair. Suddenly, you’re glad you have that car insurance.

Medicare Supplement Insurance is the same thing. You could use that $6,000 a year to make money. But what would the net cost be if something major happened? And as you get older, you have an increased possibility of that happening.

You have to make that decision on your own. But in many respects, we find that the Medicare Supplement insurance premiums can be worth it.

Insurance Medicare Supplement
Supplement Medicare

Question 2: What is Your Opinion of Gold and Silver as an Investment Option?

With all the advertising promoting gold and silver as a safer investment. What is your opinion of that, and what is your advice to someone weighing that as an option?

Safer? Really?

Safer is an interesting way to put that. I’m not sure I would call gold and silver “safer.”

Gold and silver are fear assets. When things around us are going poorly, precious metals tend to do a lot better.

Right now, we are in a pandemic. We have a situation where the government is spending a lot of money to help people. They’re printing the money. And there’s some questions about whether they can sustain this long-term.

When a country does this, they’re trying to create some type of inflation. If we have hyperinflation—like Venezuela, they’re the most recent high profile case. In Venezuela, inflation has been some 3,000%. They’ve printed all this money. A loaf of bread costs $200. The price of gold also goes much higher.

When you look at what’s happening in America right now, some believe gold might be a really good asset. We keep pumping out trillions of dollars of stimulus money. The Fed continues to buy assets, and the money’s coming out of thin air. There’s a good reason to think gold could go much higher.

Consider all the alternatives

You have to consider a couple of other things as well. What other investments can you use? Stocks are one choice. we’re big believers in stocks. Equities have a lot of volatility. As we’ve talked about, we could see the stock market fall more in the coming months. Gold and silver may do a better job of holding their value over the next few months.

Bonds don’t look attractive right now. Yields are extremely low. And the only way bonds can generate any significant gains is if yields go even lower. Gold and silver may do a better job of holding their value than bonds right now.

Current prices matter

The other thing you need to consider are current prices. Gold recently set all-time highs. So you’re buying an asset at its highest price—ever. You are buying now and hoping it goes higher. Much of the gain from Gold has already happened.

If the US economy continues to rebound, gold prices could fall. Silver isn’t near an all time high. It has some room to run, but there are similar concerns.

Volatility in Gold and Silver

Medicare Supplement Insurance Gold Silver Stocks

Remember, gold and silver have a lot of volatility. All three investments have times when they perform extremely well. And, all three have times when they deliver gut wrenching drops.

Gold and silver can do well when stocks don’t. But the opposite can also be true. You have to be careful when you’re buying any type of asset when prices are at all-time highs. A lot of the gains have already happened.

There was an interesting stat from that chart. From 2007 through June of this year, stocks and gold have a very similar average annual return. I would have thought that stocks would have performed better. But the recent events had a significant impact on these numbers.

Question 3: Is the Media Moving the Market?

Is the market today being influenced by the media, especially the liberal left agenda?

This is an interesting question. When you’re in an election year, politics tends to dominate the headlines.

Both sides are trying to make themselves look good, and make the other side look bad. So both sides are pushing their agenda. It depends on which channel you turn to on a given night. as to which one you’ll hear.

You can argue the market has improved because the conservative agenda has shined. You can also make a case that the market has improved because of the liberal agenda. I’m not sure either argument is valid.

It depends on your perspective. You can create a reason for the moves in your own mind. You might believe the stock market is pricing in a Joe Biden victory in November. You can argue the stock market has benefited more from policies put forth by republicans.

When stocks go up, there are more buyers than sellers. When stocks go down, there are more sellers than buyers.

A lot of what we’ve seen to this point from the government has had a lot of bipartisan support. A lot of it has been driven by actions of the Federal Reserve—who is supposed to be politically neutral. You can’t really say that one party’s agenda is responsible for what is happening in the market.

Constant themes in the stock market…

As we get closer to the election, politics will play a bigger role in the day to day volatility. But you have to remember something with stocks: companies still find ways to make money. When we’re investing in stocks, we are buying those future profits. It doesn’t matter who’s in charge, Businesses will find a way to make money and grow their earnings.

The other thing to remember is volatility.  It’s always part of the stock market, no matter who’s in charge. We will always see stock prices have wild swings up and down.

In the big picture, the reasons why the market does what it does really don’t matter that much. Over time, stocks go up. It’s what they do. Politics don’t matter as much as some people want to believe.

What’s moving the market?

So my answer to the question. Nobody’s agenda is affecting the stock market. Stocks have gone up for these three reasons:

  • Anticipation of economic recovery
  • Optimism for a vaccine coming to market quickly
  • Earnings news hasn’t been as bad as anticipated

That’s why the stock market has gone up. In my opinion, it has nothing to do with right vs left or conservative vs liberal.

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Financial Planning

About the Author

Neal Watson is a Certified Financial Planner™ Professional and a Financial Advisor with Fleming Watson Financial Advisors.    He specializes in helping hard working, middle class families plan for retirement.

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