A Stock Market Crash is Always Coming

A Stock Market Crash is Always Coming

A stock market crash is always coming.  

A good friend of mine sent me an article last week written by the folks at motleyfool.com. Four Reasons the Market will Crash in the Next Three Months.

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The reasons they gave were:

  • Increased restrictions due to the virus
  • The vaccine euphoria would evaporate. (Remember in the last quarter of 2020, the stock market got a big boost on the vaccine news.)
  • Democrats would win the two Senate races in the Georgia runoffs. (This already happened.)
  • And history repeating itself.

Here’s the truth about the stock market.  The stock market goes up, it goes down, and then it goes back up, again. There is always a crash of some magnitude coming.

Crashes are Normal

Your definition of a crash and my definition of a crash are probably two different things. To me, a crash is a significant drop. What we saw last spring, that was a crash. Others include:

  • The “dot com” bust
  • the Great Recession
  • 1987
  • And the end of 2018, when the market dropped almost 20% over the course of three months.

You can look at the data going back into the 1920s and see that market crashes happen all the time.

Annual Corrections

The average calendar year correction since 1980 is -14%. The smallest was -3%. And the small corrections are rarer than the bigger ones.

The largest was -47%. That happened back in 2008. Last year, the correction was -35%. It was the second-worst drop in the last 41 years.

These events happen regularly. What is more important is what happens after the crashes. The stock market’s total return in 2020. was +18.4% last year. It erased the losses and produced a gain of almost 20%!

A stock market crash is always coming

Over the last 41 years,

  • There has been a drop of -10% or more at least 23 times
  • the market has gone down by more than -14% 16 times
  • and the compounded average annual return over the 41-year timeframe is +11.9% per year.

Stop and think about what has happened over the last four decades.

Despite all that happened, the stock market rewarded investors with an 11.9% average annual return.

Don’t worry about the headlines. You can write these stories every month from here to eternity. The crashes are going to happen. History shows us time and time again, those who weather the storms are rewarded.

Talk to a Certified Financial Planner™ Professional

 


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About the Author

Neal Watson is a Certified Financial Planner™ Professional and a Financial Advisor with Fleming Watson Financial Advisors.    He specializes in helping hard working, middle class families plan for retirement.

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Taxing Social Security

Taxing Social Security

Today we talk about taxing Social Security. We will discuss:

  • the factors that go into determining whether your Social Security income is taxable or not
  • give you some examples, and
  • tell you about a few potential surprises that you may encounter.

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Taxing Other Types Of Retirement Income

Last week we discussed how other types of common retirement income are taxed. Click Here to watch that episode.

Today, we focus on taxing Social Security benefits. For some people, your Social Security may be taxable. Here is how we can determine if your benefits will be taxed.

Provisional Income

It starts with your provisional income. To determine if your Social Security is taxable, you’ll need to compute this. It includes:

  • half of your Social Security
  • dividends
  • interest, both taxable and non taxable
  • earnings
  • pension income
  • IRA distributions, and
  • other income

If your provisional income is less than

  • $32,000, for a couple
  • $25,000 for a single person,

your Social Security benefits are not taxed.

But if your provisional income is between

  • $32,000- $44,000 for a couple
  • $25,000- $34,000, for a single filer,

50% of your Social Security income is taxed.

And if your provisional income is over

  • $44,000 for a couple
  • $32,000 for a single person

85% of your Social Security benefits is taxed.

Examples

John and Carol

John receives about $27,600 in Social Security benefits and Carol receives $21,600. That totals $49,200. Half of their benefit is $24,600. They receive $2,000 a month from John’s IRA, for a total of $24,000. Total, they earn $5,000 per year in dividends and another $1,500 in interest.

Their provisional income is $55,100. This means 85% of their Social Security benefits are taxable.

taxing Social Security

Mary

Mary was recently widowed. She receives $21,600 in Social Security, half of which is $10,800. She takes a required minimum distribution from her IRA which was $8,300. Her provisional income in this case is $19,100. This is below the $25,000 threshold, so her Social Security benefits are not taxed.

taxing Social Security

Carl

Carl is single. He receives $2,000 per month from Social Security, $24,000 total. Half of that is $12,000. He also gets about $2,000 in dividends and $1,000 in interest. The rest of Karl’s income comes from a Roth IRA. He takes $50,000 from his Roth account. His provisional income is $15,000.  His Social Security benefits will not be taxed.

The Roth IRA distributions do not add to his provisional income.This is an additional benefit of using a Roth IRA in your retirement planning. Distributions from the Roth are not taxed. They also won’t make your Social Security benefits taxable.

taxing Social Security

Potential Surprises

Change in Marital Status

The first surprise is a sudden change in your marital status. If you find yourself suddenly single, you may owe more in taxes. The income limits for single people are lower than those for married couples. A sudden change in marital status may lead to more of your social security benefits being taxed.

Change in Income

A sudden increase in your income can also have a hidden surprise. This normally happens when you reach the age for required minimum distributions. At age 72, you have to start taking money from your IRA account. This will add to your provisional income. The distribution may cause your Social Security income to be taxed

Talk to a Certified Financial Planner™ Professional

There are a lot of factors that affect your taxes in your retirement, and you can manage some of them. Talk to a financial planner to learn more.

 


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About the Author

Neal Watson is a Certified Financial Planner™ Professional and a Financial Advisor with Fleming Watson Financial Advisors.    He specializes in helping hard working, middle class families plan for retirement.

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Save More or Pay Off Your Mortgage?

Save More or Pay Off Your Mortgage?

As you get closer to retirement, should you save more or pay off your mortgage?  This was a question we received from a listener.  Let’s look at the key factors of your decision.

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Today we have a question from Laura. She writes, “My husband and I will be 52 years old this year. Should we focus on saving more for retirement or paying off our mortgage?”

Why Pay Off Your Mortgage Before You Retire?

Your mortgage payments are typically one of your biggest expenses. Not having that expense frees up money for other things or reduces the stress on your savings. We like to see people not have a mortgage when they go into retirement.

An Example:

Laura and her husband need $2,000 per month from savings to cover their expenses—including their mortgage. Using the 4% rule as a basic guideline, they would need about $600,000 in savings.

save more or pay off mortgage

Their mortgage payment is $800 per month. If they pay off the note before retirement, they would only need about $1,200 per month from savings. Using the 4% rule, this means they only need about $360,000 in savings. It is a significant difference.

Save More Pay Off Mortgage

What Factors In Your Decision?

If you are trying to determine whether you should pay more on your mortgage or save more, ask these questions:

If you keep your mortgage payment the same, will your mortgage be paid off by the time you retire?

If the answer is yes, consider adding extra funds to your retirement savings. You may want to think about using a Roth IRA, Roth 401k, or other types of after-tax savings? If the answer is no, you may want to dig a little deeper.

Will paying more on your loan eliminate your mortgage by the time you retire?

If the answer is yes, consider paying extra on your note.

How much have you already saved and how much are you saving towards retirement?

If you have been a good saver and have a good foundation, it’s easier to favor paying extra on your loan. But if you have not been a good saver, you may want to place a higher priority on your savings.

Talk to a Certified Financial Planner™ Professional

There are a lot of moving parts to this and it is a great thing to discuss with a financial planner. They can help you build a strategy that makes sense for you and helps you achieve the best possible outcome.

 


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About the Author

Neal Watson is a Certified Financial Planner™ Professional and a Financial Advisor with Fleming Watson Financial Advisors.    He specializes in helping hard working, middle class families plan for retirement.

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What is Tax-Loss Harvesting?

What Is Tax-Loss Harvesting?

A listener asks a question about year end tax planning.  Can tax-loss harvesting help your tax situation?  Today we look at this strategy and how it works.

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What is tax-Loss harvesting

Today we answer a question from Joanne. She writes, “Last week I heard about something called tax-loss harvesting. What is it, and how can we benefit from it?” This is a strategy you can use to reduce your tax liability.

Understanding Capital Losses

From time to time, investments will decrease in value. And they may decrease to a level that is below your cost basis. Your cost basis is what you paid for the investment, plus any dividends reinvested into that position.

If the market value drops below your cost basis, you have an unrealized capital loss. You realize that loss when you sell it, and that can help reduce your income tax liability.

How Capital Losses Affect Your Taxes

First, losses offset any capital gains. Capital gains happen in two ways. They happen when you sell something for a profit. If you own a mutual fund, the fund may pay a capital gain distribution. The fund creates gains when the fund buys and sells securities.

An investor sells shares of Amazon for a $10,000 profit. They also sell shares of Ford for an $8,000 loss. They would only pay capital gains taxes on $2,000.

Loss-Harvesting

If your losses exceed your gains, you can use those losses to reduce other income, up to certain limits. You can use $3,000 of capital losses to reduce your other income each year. Any excess gets carried forward to future years.

Our investor sold shares of Amazon for a $10,000 gain. They also sold shares of General Electric for a $15,000 loss. You would not incur any capital gains taxes this year. They can use $3,000 of the remaining loss against their other income. The investor would have to carry $2,000 forward to use against their taxes next year.

What is Tax-Loss harvesting

Planning Tip

This does not apply to any investments in an IRA, 401k, or other types of qualified plans. You are not paying capital gains taxes on anything you buy and sell in those accounts.

Wash Sales

If you are harvesting a capital loss, you can’t buy the same investment you sold for a loss within 30 days. Doing so creates a wash sale. The IRA will not allow the loss on your taxes. If the stock you sold has a sudden increase in price, you can miss out on the gains.

Keep Good Records

If you have a large capital loss, it could take a long time to carry it forward. You will need to keep very good records.

There is Still Time for 2020

You still have time to harvest capital losses for this year. Any sales made between now and December 31 count on this year’s taxes. But you should speak to your tax professional to see what kind of impact those will have on your situation.

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About the Author

Neal Watson is a Certified Financial Planner™ Professional and a Financial Advisor with Fleming Watson Financial Advisors.    He specializes in helping hard working, middle class families plan for retirement.

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Obstacles To Your Retirement

Obstacles To Your Retirement

What are the biggest obstacles to retiring when you want to? Whether you are two years from retirement or 20 years, we all face similar obstacles. Today, we discuss the three biggest obstacles to your retirement.

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Obstacle 1: Health Insurance

Many people would like to retire at 62 or younger. But there is a big problem. Health insurance at that age can be very expensive. Depending on where you live, premiums for health insurance can cost between $1,200 and $1,800 per month, per person. That means $2,400 to $3,600 for a couple. You can also expect those premiums to increase a significant amount each year.

The coverage may also not be as good as what you currently have. Many policies have high deductibles and limited options for providers and hospitals. You also may not have prescription coverage.

What can you do to overcome this obstacle?

Delay Retirement

The most obvious answer is to wait until 65 to retire. At that point, you are eligible for Medicare, which is a lot less expensive.

Dedicated Savings

If delaying retirement is not an option, maybe you want to consider saving more. Consider creating a dedicated account designed to cover your health insurance premiums. If you already have a health savings account, that may be a way to help. But you want to be careful using your HSA. You cannot use your HSA to pay for health insurance premiums if you deduct or claim a tax credit for those costs on your return.

Take More Income from Savings

The other thing you can do is to take more income from savings early in retirement. Doing this can add risk to your nest egg. If your investments struggle, a higher withdrawal rate could create problems.

Obstacles to Your Retirement
Obstacles to Your Retirement

Obstacle 2: Mortgage Debt

The second major obstacle is mortgage debt. It tends to be one of the larger items in your budget. According to the Employee Benefit Research Institute, people between the ages of 65 and 75 spend on average $21,000 per year on housing costs. More people are retiring with mortgages than they did 10 years ago. A mortgage can be a significant part of that annual total. How can you overcome this?

Prioritize Paying Off Your Mortgage

If you have a few years until you retire, make paying off your mortgage a higher priority. Saving is important , but eliminating this debt will improve your retirement cash flow.

Many people earn more on their savings than what they pay in interest. But the impact of compounding returns over five or ten years isn’t as significant. Paying off the mortgage can have more long-term value to you when thinking about your retirement.

Refinance Your Loan

You may want to consider refinancing your house, especially right now. Mortgage rates in 2020 are as low as they have ever been. Refinancing can reduce your interest rate and spread the payments over more years. This can reduce your payments. It is not ideal, but it’s better than putting too much strain on your nest egg.

Downsize

Consider downsizing. Sell your house and use the equity to buy something smaller where you may not have the debt. You may not need all that space anyhow. Downsizing could also lower your insurance premiums and property taxes.

Obstacle 3: Inadequate Savings

Most people will struggle to retire on their terms because they did not save enough. How can you overcome this?

Save More

If you have a few years before you want to retire, make saving a higher priority. Re-examine what expenses are critical to enjoying life and cut those that are not.

Pursue Growth

Be more growth oriented. Pursuing higher returns can help you accumulate more. This works better if you have a longer timeframe. Remember, there could be some rough periods where things could be very difficult.

Delay Retirement

The third thing you can do is delay your retirement date. Waiting to retire gives you more time to save. It also reduces the discounts to Social Security or pensions.

Consider Working Part-Time

You can also consider other ways to supplement your income such as part-time lower stress work.

Simplify Your Life

Consider simplifying and minimizing your lifestyle. You may have to scale back on some things and reduce expenses to make retirement work.

Your retirement decision is about balancing risks. Increasing the income from your savings increases the risk of running out of money. But, waiting to retire means you have less time to enjoy your golden years.

There are no one-size-fits-all rules. You need to make the right decision for you and your family. And you need to make the best decision you can with all the information available. If you would like help going through the numbers, talk to a financial planner.

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About the Author

Neal Watson is a Certified Financial Planner™ Professional and a Financial Advisor with Fleming Watson Financial Advisors.    He specializes in helping hard working, middle class families plan for retirement.

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Offered Early Retirement? Start Here.

Offered Early Retirement? Start Here

A listener was offered early retirement.  There is a lot to consider before making your decision to retire—even if you weren’t offered an incentive.  If you’re thinking about retiring soon, and don’t know where to begin, start here.

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Offered early Retirement start here

This week we have a question from David. He writes, “I’ll be 62 in the spring. My employer has offered early retirement. How do I know if I can make it work?

This is an excellent question. Let’s cover some of the basics.

Know Your Numbers!

This means your income and your expenses.

Your Savings

How much have you saved? And how much income can your nest egg provide? This is an important thing to determine. The more you withdraw from your nest egg, the greater the risk of running out of money during your lifetime.

You want to get as much as you can without putting too much stress on that account.

Pension

Are you going to get a pension? If so, how much will it be? Should you consider a lump sum payout if it is available? This is an important decision to make. For some people taking the monthly payments makes the most sense. For others, taking a lump sum is a better choice. You will want to work through the numbers and determine what is right for you.

Social Security

You need to make a decision about your Social Security. You are eligible to start your Social Security at 62. But that comes with big discounts. Can you wait to take your Social Security until age 65 or your normal retirement age? Waiting to start your benefits reduces the discount. This can result in thousands of dollars of additional benefits over your lifetime. But it does not always make sense to wait. Sometimes it makes sense to start it at 62 if you need to. Please look at this decision very carefully.

Early Retirement Incentive Payment

If you are getting an incentive to retire, how will that impact your cash flow? Does the payment mean you will not have to take income from your 401k? Does it provide enough income so you can delay your Social Security?

If you can use that money to pay your expenses, you can reduce stress on your savings or improve your Social Security benefits.

Expenses

Knowing your expenses is very important. Look at what you are spending now and how it will change when you retire. Certain things in your budget are going away. You are not going to be driving to work every day. You won’t be buying clothes for work and you may spend less on meals, too.

Some expenses might increase. You may play golf more often. You may have other hobbies that cost money. That means you might be spending more on some things.

If things are tight, is there anything that you can cut from your budget? Are there lower priority expenses that you can drop to help make things work for a few years.

Spending is a major component of your long-term financial success. In fact, overspending can be one of the biggest reasons people run out of money.

Debt

Do you have a lot of debt? Loan payments can be a significant expense, especially car payments and mortgage payments. Can you can use your early incentive payment to eliminate some of those debts? That could have a big impact on your cash flow. You need to work through the numbers to see if this is worth considering.

You may want to consider refinancing your mortgage. This isn’t an ideal strategy. The ideal situation would be to be debt free when you retire. Refinancing your mortgage could lower your monthly payment and help your budget.

Early Retirement Offer Start Here
early retirement offer start here

The Big Issue: Health Insurance

Because you are only 62, one of the biggest things that you will face is buying health insurance. Recently, we have heard quotes for coverage between $2,000 and $3,500 a month. This is a very significant expense. You can expect the premiums to increase each year until you are eligible for Medicare.

Most of those policies are going to have big deductibles, and the coverage may not be ideal. You may also have to change doctors, and you may not be able to go to your preferred hospital.

The health insurance marketplace in our area is very difficult right now. But, if you can figure this out, you have a real chance to make early retirement work.

Your Spouse

Is your spouse going to retire or continue working? If they are going to keep working, how will they adjust to you being home all day when they have to get up and go to work? Maybe they are retiring too, and you both will have to adjust to both of you being home all day.

Practical and Objective Advice

You want to make the right decision for your family.  Consider talking to a fiduciary financial advisor to help you work through the numbers.
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About the Author

Neal Watson is a Certified Financial Planner™ Professional and a Financial Advisor with Fleming Watson Financial Advisors.    He specializes in helping hard working, middle class families plan for retirement.

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Can You Still Do Qualified Charitable Distribution in 2020?

Can You Still Do a Qualified Charitable Distribution in 2020?

Can you still do the Qualified Charitable Distribution in 2020? This is a question we received from a listener. We’ll tell you what a QCD is, who qualifies, how you do it, and offer a few tips.

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Today we have a question from Charlie. He asks, “I saw where we don’t have to take our required minimum distributions this year. Can we still do the charitable distribution from our IRA?”

The CARES Act suspended the need for required minimum distributions in 2020. But what Charlie is referring to is the qualified charitable distribution. This allows people who are at least 70½ to send a distribution from their IRA directly to a charity. There is a benefit to this, you don’t have to report it as income.

Tax benefits of a Qualified Charitable Distribution

Today, the standard deduction is much higher. Most people aren’t able to itemize their deductions. This means many people lost the tax benefits from charitable donations.

By not having to report them as income, you do get the tax benefit. And the benefit is even better. You don’t pay federal or state income taxes on the qualified charitable distributions. Itemized deductions don’t help you on your state income taxes.

How do you make a Qualified Charitable Distribution?

Here is what you need to know about Qualified Charitable Distributions:

  1. You have to be at least age 70½.
  2. Because the funds are not going to the account owner, most custodians are going to require a signed form. You’ll need the name and address of the charity.
  3. The custodian will then send the funds directly to the charity.

This distribution is going to show up on your 1099R as a normal distribution. You need to tell your tax preparer that this is a qualified charitable distribution. They will be able to handle it properly for your return.

Something to consider...

Even though you aren’t required to take money from your IRA this year, you can still do the qualified charitable distribution. But, keep something in mind. We are close enough to the end of the year to consider waiting until January to complete this. It will count towards your 2021 required minimum distribution. We’re not trying to discourage you from supporting those organizations now. But, if you wait a couple months, it will give you the biggest bang for your buck.

A tip for 2021 (and beyond)

Let’s say you go to church every week and you put $20 in the collection basket. Use the qualified charitable distribution and send them $1,000 from your IRA, instead. The church gets the same amount and you’ll get the tax benefits you didn’t receive before. If you have questions about how this could help you, talk to a financial advisor.
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About the Author

Neal Watson is a Certified Financial Planner™ Professional and a Financial Advisor with Fleming Watson Financial Advisors.    He specializes in helping hard working, middle class families plan for retirement.

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Is Gold a Better Investment than Stocks?

Is Gold A Better Investment Than Stocks?

Is gold a better investment than stocks?  Wendy asks, “I keep hearing ads advising us to sell our stocks and buy gold or silver. For an older investor, is this a valid point?” 

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Gold Better iNvestment than stocks

Is gold a better investment than stocks?  

Gold is one of the ultimate fear assets. When things go haywire in the markets, people tend to turn to gold because it’s a tangible asset, and it has value everywhere.

We’re dealing with the possibility of hyperinflation. If that happens, gold could do very well. Another shutdown could increase the fear level of investors. Gold could also do well in that case. There are periods of time, like early 2020, where gold really shined.

Fact or Myth? Gold is safer than stocks

You have a gold bar locked in the safe. You paid $1,500 dollars for it. Unless you pay attention to gold prices, you know you have a gold bar and it has value. You may not know how much it’s worth, but it’s going to be worth something to somebody.

If you pulled it out earlier this year and thought to yourself, “I wonder how much this is worth?”, you discovered it was worth $2,000. Then, you put it back in the safe until next year. The next time you think about the bar, it could be worth $1,500. It could be worth $1,200.

Gold has extreme fluctuations in value, just like stocks. Let’s look at the last 13 years.

  • 2013 -28%
  • 2014 -2%
  • 2015 -10%
  • 2018 -2%.

Over the same timeframe, stocks were down

  • 2008 -37%
  • 2018 -4%.

Over 13 years, gold lost money four times, and stocks were down twice.

If you look at the last 48 calendar years, gold experienced declines 18 times. Stocks fell 11 times.

Gold is not a “safer asset” than stocks.

Is gold better than stocks?

Here is a link to a good article called, Gold’s Romantic Delusion. There’s a graph in that article which shows $10,000 invested in gold in 1980 versus $10,000 invested in stocks. On July 31 2020, the gold would have been worth about $36,000. Stocks would have been worth $761,000.

Is Gold Better Than Stocks

Source: Gold’s Romantic Delusion by Andrew Hallam.  Click here for the full article

Is it a better asset than stocks for older clients, or any client for that matter? In our opinion, no. The numbers say the opposite. Gold isn’t a bad investment, but I wouldn’t own gold instead of stocks.

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Neal Watson is a Certified Financial Planner™ Professional and a Financial Advisor with Fleming Watson Financial Advisors.    He specializes in helping hard working, middle class families plan for retirement.

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Should I Start Social Security at 62?

Should I Start My Social Security At 62?

This question is from Lloyd. He asks, “I’m planning to retire in the spring when I turn 62. Should I start taking my Social Security or should I wait?”

This is a big decision. The only decision we have when we’re looking at social security is when to file for our benefits.

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The impact of retiring early

The year you were born determines your normal retirement age. When you start Social Security before your normal retirement age, your benefits are reduced. If you’re married, the spousal benefit is also discounted. It also means a lower survivor benefit. The dollar amount of your cost of living adjustments will also be smaller. The percentage will be the same, but the dollar amount of the increase will be smaller.

A lot of people still signed up for social security early.

  • 31% of men and 27% of women sign up for their social security benefits at age 62
  • 6% applied at age 63
  • 7% filed at age 64
  • 10% applied for social security at age 65
  • 33% filed for their benefits at normal retirement age
  • 6% waited until age 70 to maximize their benefits

A little more than half of the recipients file for their benefits early.

A look at some numbers

You can do a lot of calculations to help determine when to start your benefits. Delaying your retirement can lead to thousands of dollars of additional benefits over your lifetime. But, you must live long enough to make it work. Generally speaking, you have to live until you are in your early 80s.

Here is how this can impact Lloyd. Let’s say his full retirement benefit is $2,300 per month. If he starts Social Security at 62, his benefit shrinks to $1,640.

At his full retirement age, his wife’s spousal benefit, if he’s married, would be half of the $2,300 or $1,150. At age 62, the spousal benefit will be, at most, $820. The combined benefits are nearly $1,000 less each month.

If Lloyd waits to start his Social Security, his discount isn’t as big.

  • By waiting a full year to apply for benefits, his amount grows by 7%
  • If he waits two full years, his benefit grows by over 14%
  • Should he wait until age 65, three years later, his benefit grows by 24%

A big decision

Should Lloyd take his Social Security benefits at 62?

It depends. Is he healthy? Is he married? Can he afford to retire without taking his benefits and not to put too much stress on his savings? There are a lot of factors, and it’s hard to say yes or no.

Here is what we typically see. People start their social security when they retire—regardless of their age. Most of the time, it’s because they need the money. The ones who retire and delay their Social Security have been good savers and have low expenses.

You need to consider your entire situation. You can’t make the decision about Social Security in a vacuum. There are many other factors involved in this process.

If you are unsure what to do, talk to a financial advisor before you make a costly mistake.

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About the Author

Neal Watson is a Certified Financial Planner™ Professional and a Financial Advisor with Fleming Watson Financial Advisors.    He specializes in helping hard working, middle class families plan for retirement.

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